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0.6 percent on average, from 2015-2040. For the 20 Bcf/d scenario, total end-use
energy
expenditures are projected to rise by $18 billion per year, or 1.3 percent on average, from 2015 to
2040. EIA projected that increased end-use expenditures on natural gas account for one-third of
additional expenditures.
9.
Increased Gross Domestic Product
EIA projected that increased LNG exports leads to higher economic output, as measured
by real GDP, as increased energy production spurs investment. This higher economic output is
enough to overcome the negative impact of higher domestic energy prices over the projection
period. EIA projected that implementing the export scenarios specified for this Study increased
GDP by 0.05 to 0.2 percent over the 2015-2040 period depending on the export scenario. The
GDP gains from increasing LNG exports are positive across all cases, although relatively
modest.
C.
2015 LNG Export Study, The Macroeconomic Impact of Increasing
U.S. LNG Exports
The Center for Energy Studies at Rice University’s Baker Institute and Oxford
Economics (hereinafter, Rice-Oxford) were commissioned by Leonardo Technologies, Inc. (LTI)
on behalf of DOE/FE to undertake a scenario-based assessment of the macroeconomic impact of
alternative levels of U.S. LNG exports under a range of assumptions concerning U.S.
resource
endowment, U.S. natural gas demand, and the international market environment—referred to
herein as the 2015 Study.
1.
Overview of Rice-Oxford’s Findings in the 2015 Study
The key findings of the 2015 Study include the following:
59
Rising LNG exports are associated with a net increase in domestic natural gas
production. The 2015 Study finds that the majority of the increase in LNG exports is
accommodated by expanded domestic production rather than reductions in domestic demand.
As exports increase, the spread between U.S. domestic prices and international
benchmarks narrows. In every case, greater LNG exports raise
domestic prices and lower
prices internationally. The majority of the price movement (in absolute terms) occurs in Asia.
The overall macroeconomic impacts of higher LNG exports are marginally positive,
a result that is robust to alternative assumptions for the U.S. natural gas market. With
external demand for U.S. LNG exports at 20 Bcf/d, the impact of increasing exports from 12
Bcf/d is 0.03 percent of GDP over the period of 2026–2040, or $7 billion annually in constant
2015 dollars. In the high resource recovery (LNG20_HRR) case where U.S. LNG exports reach
a volume of 28 Bcf/d, the impact of increasing exports from 12 Bcf/d is 0.07 percent of GDP
over the period 2026-2040, or $20 billion annually in constant 2015 dollars.
An increase in LNG exports from the United States will generate small declines in
output at the margin for some energy
‐
intensive, trade‐
exposed industries. The
sectors that
appear most exposed are cement, concrete, and glass, but the estimated impact on sector output is
very small compared to expected sector growth to 2040.
Negative impacts in energy
‐
intensive sectors are offset by positive impacts
elsewhere. Other industries benefit from increasing U.S. LNG exports, especially those that
supply the natural gas sector or benefit from the capital expenditures needed to increase
production. This includes some energy-intensive sectors and helps offset some of the impact of
higher energy prices.
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2.
Methodology
Rice-Oxford’s analysis in the 2015 Study used
a highly specialized, multi-stage
modeling approach. First, the Rice World Gas Trade Model (RWGTM) was used to simulate
various alternative futures for the global natural gas market.
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These output data were input into
the Oxford Economics Global Economic Model (GEM) and Global Industry Model (GIM) to
simulate broad macroeconomic and sectors impacts of the various alternative paths for the global
natural gas market.
According to Rice-Oxford, the 2015 Study analyzed a wide range
of scenarios in order to
establish conclusions that are not dependent on any particular set of starting conditions for the
U.S. or international natural gas markets. The scenario assumptions fall along two core
dimensions. In one dimension, Rice-Oxford considered different U.S. domestic market
conditions regarding resources and domestic demand. In the other dimension,
Rice-Oxford
considered specific circumstances that result in different international demand pull for U.S.-
sourced LNG for each domestic scenario. The domestic scenarios were:
•
Reference domestic case;
•
High Resource Recovery (HRR) case, which reflects a higher level of recoverable
resource in the United States;
•
Low Resource Recovery (LRR) case, which reflects a lower level of recoverable resource
in the United States; and
•
High Natural Gas Demand (Hi-D) case, which reflects a higher level of demand in the
United States.
The international demand scenarios were:
•
Reference
international case;
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The Rice World Gas Trade Model is an equilibrium global natural gas model, as described in Annex B of the
2015 LNG Study. The model has 290 regional demand areas that cover countries having 90 percent of the global
energy demand, and 140 natural gas resource and production regions modeled on recent authoritative resource
estimates.