55
•
Measures of domestic industrial activity in NEMS are sensitive to both the
composition of final U.S. demand and changes in domestic energy prices.
However, NEMS does not account for the impact of domestic and global energy
price changes on the global utilization pattern for existing manufacturing capacity
or the siting of new capacity inside or outside of the United
States in energy-
intensive industries.
3.
Results of the 2014 EIA LNG Export Study
EIA generally found that LNG exports will lead to higher domestic natural gas prices,
increased domestic natural gas production, reduced domestic natural gas consumption, and
higher levels of economic output (as measured by real gross domestic product or GDP). The
impacts of exports, according to EIA, are as follows:
Increased natural gas prices. EIA stated that larger export levels would lead to larger
domestic price increases. Percentage changes in delivered natural gas prices would be lower
than percentage changes in producer prices, particularly for residential and commercial
customers.
Increased natural gas production and supply. Increased exports would result in
increased natural gas production that would satisfy 61 to 84 percent of the increase in
natural gas
exports, with a minor additional contribution from increased imports from Canada. Across most
cases, EIA states that about three-quarters of this increased production would come from shale
sources.
Decreased natural gas consumption. Due to higher prices, EIA projects a decrease in
the volume of natural gas consumed domestically. EIA states that the
electric power generation
mix would shift toward other generation sources, including coal and renewable fuels. EIA
indicates that there also would be a small reduction in natural gas use in all sectors from
efficiency improvements and conservation.
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Increased levels of GDP. EIA states that increased energy production would spur
investment, which would more than offset the adverse impact of somewhat higher energy prices.
GDP increases would range from 0.05 to 0.17 percent and generally increase with the amount of
added LNG exports.
4.
Increased Natural Gas Prices
EIA found that natural gas prices would increase generally across all of the export
scenarios, with the greatest impact during the first 10 years when LNG exports are ramping up.
The smallest price change over the baseline occurs in the High Oil and Gas Resource case. The
Low Oil and Gas Resource case yields the largest price response.
EIA notes that the percentage changes in producer natural gas prices and delivered prices
to customers compared to the AEO 2014 Reference
case baseline would vary, but would be
relatively modest. Prices paid to producers would increase from 4 to 11 percent under the 12 and
20 Bcf/d scenario, respectively, while prices paid by residential customers would rise even
less—from 2 to 5 percent under the 12 and 20 Bcf/d scenarios.
5.
Increased Natural Gas Production and Supply
EIA projected that most of the additional natural gas needed for export would be
provided by increased domestic production with a minor contribution
from increased pipeline
imports from Canada. The remaining portion of the increased export volumes would be offset by
decreases in consumption resulting from higher prices associated with the increased exports.
6.
Decreased Domestic Natural Gas Consumption
EIA projected that greater export levels would lead to decreases in domestic natural gas
consumption. This decrease would occur largely within the electric power sector. EIA projected
that over the 2015-40 period, the decline in natural gas consumption from electric power
57
generators,
on average, contributes from 10 to 18 percent to the levels of natural gas needed for
the increased LNG export demands, across all cases and scenarios. The Study noted that the
trade-off in natural gas-fired generation and generation from competing fuels varies depending
on the case, and generally depends on the generation fuel mix in the base scenarios.
7.
Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions
EIA projected that the use of natural gas to provide energy for added liquefaction,
combined with the displacement of natural gas by more carbon-intensive fuels in
end-use sectors,
causes an increase in U.S. CO
2
emissions over the analysis period in most pairings of export
scenarios and baselines. The Study noted that the increased use of coal in the electric power
sector and the increased use of liquids in the industrial sector generally result in a net increase in
CO
2
emissions. The Study also noted that, despite the CO
2
emission increases projected in the
LNG export scenarios, energy-related CO
2
emissions remain below the 2005
level in each year
of the projection period across all pairings of scenarios and baselines.
EIA’s analysis did not include the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA)
Transport Rule,
177
as it had been vacated at the time, or other proposed EPA rulemakings.
178
EIA also did not analyze global CO
2
emissions or life cycle emissions. DOE looked at these
latter issues in a separate analysis—the LCA GHG Report, discussed below in Section IX.
8.
Increased End-User Natural Gas and Electricity Delivered Prices
EIA projected increased total end-use energy expenditures across the range of LNG
export scenarios and baselines. Implementation of the 12 Bcf/d scenario under Reference case
conditions is projected to increase total end-use energy expenditures by $9 billion per year, or
177
U.S. Envtl. Prot. Agency, Federal Implementation Plans: Interstate Transport of Fine Particulate Matter and
Ozone and
Correction of SIP Approvals; Final Rule, 76 Fed. Reg. 48,208 (Aug. 8, 2011).
178
Legislation and regulations assumed for the 2014 Annual Energy Outlook and 2014 EIA Study are available at
http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/archive/aeo14/section_legs_regs.cfm.