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profits within a competitive framework. New capital investments in
production and delivery
infrastructure thus must earn a minimum return for development to occur. The debt
‐equity ratio
is allowed to differ across different categories of investment, such as proving resources,
developing wellhead delivery capability, constructing pipelines, and developing LNG
infrastructure.
By developing supplies, pipelines, and LNG delivery infrastructure, the Rice
World Gas Trade Model provides a framework for examining the effects of different economic
and political influences on the global natural gas market within a framework grounded in
geologic data and economic theory.
5.
The Oxford Global Economic Model and Global Industry Model
Rice-Oxford stated that the Global Economic Model is the world’s leading globally
integrated macro model, used by over 100
clients around the world, including finance ministries,
leading banks, and blue
‐chip companies. The Global Economic Model covers 46 countries,
including the United States, Canada, the EU, and major emerging markets including China and
India. The model provides a rigorous, consistent structure for analysis and forecasting, and
allows the implications of alternative global scenarios and policy developments to be analyzed at
both the macro and sector level.
The Global Economic Model is an error correction model, a form of a multiple time
series model that estimates the speed at which a dependent variable returns to its equilibrium
after a shock to one or more independent variables. Rice-Oxford noted that
this form of model is
useful as estimating both the short and long run effects of variables on the given variable in
question. The Global Economic Model exhibits “Keynesian” features in the short run. Factor
prices are sticky and output is determined by aggregate demand. In the long
‐run, its properties
are Neoclassical, such that prices adjust fully, the equilibrium is determined
by supply factors
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(productivity, labor and capital), and attempts to raise growth by boosting demand only lead to
higher prices.
Linked to the Global Economic Model is the Global Industry Model. This model, based
upon standard industrial classifications and updated quarterly, has a detailed breakdown of
output by sector across 100 sectors and 67 countries. The model includes a particularly detailed
breakdown in the manufacturing sector, covering eight key sectors: metals, chemicals, motor
vehicles,
engineering and metal goods, electronics and computers, textiles and clothing,
aerospace, and other intermediate goods. The Global Industry Model generates forecasts for
both gross output and gross value added (output excluding intermediate consumption).
6.
Results of the 2015 LNG Export Study
In the 2015 Study, Rice-Oxford generally found that LNG exports will lead to:
(i) increased domestic natural gas production, (ii) a narrowing of the spread between domestic
prices and international benchmarks, (iii) marginally positive macroeconomic impacts, and
(iv) small declines in output at the margin for some energy-intensive industries that
are offset by
positive impacts elsewhere.
Table 4 below indicates the level of U.S. LNG exports in the year 2040 for every case
considered. The Rice World Gas Trade Model
Reference International and Domestic Scenario
(Ref_Ref case) has 6.38 Bcf/d of U.S. LNG exports in 2040. With the Reference International
Demand Scenario and different Domestic Scenarios, U.S. LNG exports range from 5.20 Bcf/d to
6.74 Bcf/d.
180
180
Additional explanation of the Ref_Ref case is provided in the 2015 LNG Export Study.
The Study explains that,
although U.S. LNG exports increase in the Ref_Ref case, the impact of U.S. LNG exports and other global supply
developments on international domestic prices ultimately places a check on the total volume of U.S. LNG exports.
Specifically, the price spreads in the international marketplace weaken to the point that full cost recovery of U.S.
LNG export facilities currently under construction is compromised for about a decade. Although those facilities
operate during that time period, further investment in LNG export capacity is stymied until global demand expands
to stimulate new capital flows into the U.S. LNG export value chain.
See 2015 LNG Export Study at 41.
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Table 4: U.S. LNG Exports in 2040 Across Cases (Bcf/d)
Domestic Scenarios
International Demand
Scenarios
Reference
High
Resource
Recovery
Low
Resource
Recovery
High Natural
Gas Demand
Reference
6.38
6.74
5.20
6.36
Global Demand for U.S.
LNG Supports 12 Bcf/d
11.18
16.30
6.73
9.02
Global
Demand for
U.S. LNG
Supports 20
Bcf/d
U.S. LNG
Exports 12
Bcf/d
11.81
11.82
11.80
11.81
U.S. LNG
Exports 20
Bcf/d
18.82
19.74
*
*
U.S. LNG
Exports
Endogenous
22.34
28.05
18.02
20.37
* The level of exports in these cases is the same as in the “U.S. LNG Exports Endogenous” cases.
The impacts of exports, according to Rice-Oxford, included:
Increase in domestic natural gas production. The 2015 Study found
that the majority
of the increase in LNG exports is accommodated by expanded domestic production rather than
reductions in domestic demand. Domestic production continues to increase through the time
horizon when LNG export volumes can expand to 20 Bcf/d of natural gas, rising 4 percent on
average from 2026-2040. In the high resource recovery case with 28 Bcf/d of exports, natural
gas production rose 8.5 percent on average from 2026-2040.
As exports increase, the spread between U.S. domestic prices and international
benchmarks narrows. In every case, greater LNG exports raise
domestic prices and lower
prices internationally. The majority of the price movement (in absolute terms) occurs in Asia.
The Japan Korea Marker (JKM) price declines in dollar terms by an amount that is roughly six