61
•
Global demand for U.S. LNG supports 12 Bcf/d
of exports;
•
Global demand for U.S. LNG supports 20 Bcf/d of exports but U.S. exports do not
exceed 12 Bcf/d;
•
Global demand for U.S. LNG supports 20 Bcf/d of exports but U.S. exports do not
exceed 20 Bcf/d; and
•
Global demand for U.S. LNG supports 20 Bcf/d of exports and U.S. exports are
endogenously determined by the RWGTM.
The table below outlines the approach.
Table 2: Rice-Oxford Study Scenarios
Domestic Scenarios
International Demand
Scenarios
Reference
High Resource
Recovery
Low Resource
Recovery
High
Natural Gas
Demand
Reference
Ref_Ref
Ref_HRR
Ref_LRR
Ref_Hi-D
Global Demand for
U.S. LNG Supports 12
Bcf/d
LNG12_Ref
LNG12_HRR
LNG12_LRR
LNG12_Hi-
D
Global
Demand
for U.S.
LNG
Supports
20 Bcf/d
U.S. LNG
Exports 12
Bcf/d
LNG20_Ref12 LNG20_HRR12 LNG20_LRR12
LNG20_Hi-
D12
U.S. LNG
Exports 20
Bcf/d
LNG20_Ref20 LNG20_HRR20 LNG20_LRR20
LNG20_Hi-
D20
U.S. LNG
Exports
Endogenous
LNG20_Ref
LNG20_HRR
LNG20_LRR
LNG20_Hi-
D
In general, when reading the case nomenclature in the table above, Rice-Oxford notes for
a case “N1_N2X,” N1 denotes the name of the international demand scenario, N2 denotes the
domestic scenario, and X (either 12 or 20 Bcf/d) denotes the level of LNG exports that can occur
from the United States based on the scenario.
If X is not present, this means that the amount of
62
LNG exports from the United States is fully endogenous to (
i.e., internally generated within) the
scenario being considered.
3.
Natural Gas Market Assumptions Across International Demand Scenarios
Rice-Oxford constructed the scenarios of the 2015 Study to show sufficient international
market opportunity to support commercially viable LNG exports from the United States in
accordance with the volumes indicated in each case. Various assumptions are made about the
international natural gas market so as to stimulate investment in the U.S. upstream sector and the
commensurate development of LNG export infrastructure. These scenario assumptions primarily
constrain alternative sources of global supply, such as foreign shale production or LNG capacity,
to leave more global natural gas demand to be met by U.S. LNG. The Reference, Global
Demand for U.S. LNG at 12 Bcf/d (LNG12), and Global Demand for U.S. LNG at 20 Bcf/d
(LNG20) international demand scenarios adjust shale resource availability, pipeline, and LNG
infrastructure expansion opportunities outside the United States, and
natural gas demand in
different countries. Table 3 below presents key assumptions used in the 2015 Study.
For U.S. LNG exports to exceed 12 Bcf/d of natural gas, several unlikely developments
in the global natural gas market were included in the 2015 Study. For example, accessible global
shale resources were limited to 3,542 Tcf in the LNG20 Scenario compared to 8,407 Tcf in the
Reference case. Other assumptions in Table 3 are equally drastic, such as assuming no foreign
LNG export capacity comes online after 2020. Without significant
assumptions of this
magnitude, U.S. LNG exports in the Rice World Gas Trade Model would not reach the 12 or 20
Bcf/d export levels (or, for that matter, the high resource recovery case of 28 Bcf/d of exports).
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Table 3: Select Natural Gas Market Assumptions Across International Demand Scenarios
4.
The Rice World Gas Trade Model
The Rice World Gas Trade Model (or RWGTM) is used in the 2015 Study to investigate
how various assumptions about international and domestic demand and resource availability
could impact the U.S. natural gas market over the coming decades. The Rice
World Gas Trade
Model proves and develops resources, constructs and utilizes transportation infrastructure, and
calculates prices to equate demands and supplies while maximizing the present value of producer
Reference
LNG12
LNG20
Accessible
Shale
Resource
(trillion cubic
feet)
World
8,407
6,500
3,542
Africa
1,918
1,918
0
Asia and Pacific
2,107
1,075
90
China
1,285
390
0
Australia
529
529
90
Europe
444
0
0
South America
1,786
1,786
1,260
North America
1,839
1,839
1,839
US
829
829
829
Canada
498
498
498
Mexico
513
513
513
Rest of World
314
86
0
LNG New Build Capability
No limits
Limited
expansion
capabilities in
selected locations
Only U.S. has
expansion
capability beyond
2020
Pipeline New Build Capability
No limits
No future
expansions of
Central Asian
pipelines to
China
LNG12 plus
existing Russia-
China pipeline
supply agreements
dissolve
Demand
In all scenarios, a
CO
2
trading
platform is in
place in Europe
and
the United
States is assumed
to retire 61 GWs
of coal by 2030
Chinese gas
demand rises in
response to
policies to limit
coal use;
Japanese nukes
remain offline
LNG12 case plus
CO
2
reduction
protocols targeting
coal use in India,
Indonesia, South
Korea, and a
handful of other
smaller coal
consuming nations