Seismic Risk Assessment for Production Scenario “Basispad Kabinet” for the Groningen field - June 2018
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case. Again, there is only limited impact on the Loppersum region for the five-year period shown in Figure 3.14. For
this production case there is a slight reduction in pressure in the Borgsweer area due to less water injected.
Figure 3-13:
Reservoir pressure for “Basispad Kabinet” Average Temperature. Lines by production cluster, colours by
production region.
Figure 3-14:
Incremental reservoir pressure decline for Warm scenario as compared to the Average temperature scenario,
between 1/1/2018 and 1/1/2023.
Seismic Risk Assessment for Production Scenario “Basispad Kabinet” for the Groningen field - June 2018
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Production and capacity
The production and capacity curves are shown in Figure 3.15, and the resulting Load Factors shown in Figure 3-16.
The effect of the additional nitrogen blending plant (onstream as per gas-year 2022/2023) is clearly evident from the
Load Factor graph, with the Load Factor in the South-East showing a big drop as the total gas demand becomes less
than the available capacity in the South-East alone.
Figure 3-15:
Forecasted production (green lines) and capacity (blue lines) per region for warm temperature
Seismic Risk Assessment for Production Scenario “Basispad Kabinet” for the Groningen field - June 2018
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Figure 3-16:
Load Factor per region and start-up group
Seismic Risk Assessment for Production Scenario “Basispad Kabinet” for the Groningen field - June 2018
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3.4
Comparing scenarios
Some further comparisons between the various scenarios are given in Figure 3-17 to Figure 3-19. Figure 3-17
compares the production by region, Figure 3-18 the reservoir pressure (in the vicinity of a selected production cluster
within each region), and Figure 3-19 the Load Factor by region. The compared properties are averaged over the year
for clarity.
Figure 3-17:
Comparison between production scenarios of the Gas Production by region. Cold temperature scenario given
in blue, Average in magenta, Warm in red.
Seismic Risk Assessment for Production Scenario “Basispad Kabinet” for the Groningen field - June 2018
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Figure 3-18:
Comparison between production scenarios of the reservoir pressure in the vicinity of a selected production
cluster for each region.
Figure 3-19:
Comparison between production scenarios of the Load Factor by region. Cold temperature scenario given in
blue, Average in magenta, Warm in red.
Seismic Risk Assessment for Production Scenario “Basispad Kabinet” for the Groningen field - June 2018
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3.5
Impact of cold and warm temperature on HRA
The “Basispad Kabinet” cold and warm production profiles give the extreme temperature end members from the
past 31 years. Reflecting the fact that it is unlikely to only have consecutive extreme cold (or warm) years, it was
deemed more realistic
5
to evaluate seismic hazard and risk on production profiles that follow the average, but include
an outstep to the extreme temperature profile for one single gas-year. An example where gas-year 2019-2020 follows
the cold temperature profile is shown in Figure 3-20.
Figure 3-20:
Groningen field production profiles for average and cold temperatures along with the profile used where a
single year follows the cold temperature profile, in this case gas-year 2019-20.
In terms of regional production distribution etc. these outstep profiles typically lie close to the cold or warm
temperature profile for the single year in question. The example of gas-year 2019-20 being cold is given in Table 3-1
in terms of regional production fractions.
Region
Average Temperature
Cold Temperature
GY 2019-20 Cold
South-East
29%
22%
22%
East-Central
36%
41%
42%
South-West
21%
27%
25%
BIR
12%
9%
9%
Eemskanaal
2%
1%
1%
Table 3-1:
Production fractions per region for gas-year 2019-20; comparing the single year outstep profile to the average
and cold temperature profiles.
5
Similar to rolling a dice, the odds of only throwing 6 in a set of rolls is progressively getting smaller when increasing the sampling set, the
expectation value is 3.5