Figure 4.6
The 5-year hazard map (period 2018 – 2023) for the average weather “Basispad Kabinet” scenario.
Figure 4-7 compares the annual (calendar year) hazard maps of the average temperature profile to the sensitivity
runs for cold temperature. As in the cold and warm weather scenarios the cold (or warm year) is preceded and
followed by years with an average temperature. For this reason, preparing the hazard maps for the cold and warm
weather scenario, required a dedicated assessment for each year in these weather scenarios.
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Figure 4-7
Hazard maps for the average winter weather scenario (top) followed by the different cold weather cases
making up de cold weather scenario. Gas-year 2018/2019 as a cold year followed by average temperature
years (second line). Gas-year 2019/2020 as a cold year followed by average temperature years (third line).
Following lines start with cold year followed by average temperature years.
Figures 4-8 and 4-9 show, respectively, the annual hazard maps for the cold- and warm-temperature scenarios
together with the difference w.r.t. the corresponding hazard for the average-temperature scenario. As can be
observed, these differences are within the range of ±0.03g at peak (corresponding to a relative difference of 15% to
30%).
Average winter:
Cold winter in 18/19:
Cold winter 19/20:
Cold winter 20/21:
Cold winter in 21/22:
Cold winter in 22/23:
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2018
2020
Figure 4-8a Cold-temperature scenario -- annual hazard plots (left) and difference w.r.t. corresponding average-temperature
scenario hazard (right)
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2022
2024
Figure 4-8b Cold-temperature scenario -- annual hazard plots (left) and difference w.r.t. corresponding average-temperature
scenario hazard (right)
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2026
Figure 4-8c Cold-temperature scenario -- annual hazard plots (left) and difference w.r.t. corresponding average-temperature
scenario hazard (right)
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2018
2020
Figure 4-9a Warm-temperature scenario -- annual hazard plots (left) and difference w.r.t. corresponding average-temperature
scenario hazard (right)
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2022
2024
Figure 4-9b Warm-temperature scenario -- annual hazard plots (left) and difference w.r.t. corresponding average-temperature
scenario hazard (right)
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2026
Figure 4-9c Warm-temperature scenario -- annual hazard plots (left) and difference w.r.t. corresponding average-temperature
scenario hazard (right)
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4.3
References
1.
Seismic risk assessment for a selection of seismic risk production scenarios for the Groningen field - Addendum
to: Induced Seismicity in Groningen Assessment of Hazard, Building Damage and Risk (November 2017), Jan
van Elk, Assaf Mar-Or, Leendert Geurtsen, Per Valvatne, Eddy Kuperus and Dirk Doornhof, March 2018.
2.
Induced Seismicity in Groningen, Assessment of Hazard, Building Damage and Risk – November 2017, NAM
(Jan van Elk and Dirk Doornhof), November 2017.