Seismic Risk Assessment for Production Scenario “Basispad Kabinet” for the Groningen field - June 2018
28
Figure 3-6:
Load Factor per region
Seismic Risk Assessment for Production Scenario “Basispad Kabinet” for the Groningen field - June 2018
29
3.2
“Basispad Kabinet” – Cold Temperature
The “Basispad Kabinet” cold and warm production profiles give the extreme temperature end members from the
past 31 years. Consecutive occurrence of 10 warm, average or cold years is highly unlikely. However, analysing these
end member profiles is useful to ensure that the operational philosophy is suitable to meet the demand, while
minimizing seismic hazard and risk in periods of cold and warm temperature.
Gas Production
For the cold-temperature scenario, production volumes from the Bierum and Eemskanaal clusters were not increased
compared to the average temperature base case. Figure 3.7 gives the regional break-down of the production profile,
which now allocates more to the East-Central and South-West areas compared to the average temperature case.
Due to being capacity constrained, the proportional share of the South-East clusters drops to about 20% in the years
prior to the introduction of the nitrogen blending plant.
Figure 3-7
Production by region and start-up group (“Basispad Kabinet” – Cold Temperature) by calendar year
Reservoir pressure
Figure 3.8 gives the associated reservoir pressure in the direct vicinity of the production clusters, showing the impact
of increased utilization of the South-West and East-Central regions.
Seismic Risk Assessment for Production Scenario “Basispad Kabinet” for the Groningen field - June 2018
30
Figure 3.9 highlights the incremental depletion relative to the Average temperature scenario over the next 5 years.
The additional depletion in the South-West and East-Central regions is apparent, but does not exceed 10 bar. There
is no large difference in the South-East, where clusters were already running on maximum Load-Factor in the Average
temperature scenario. In the Loppersum region, the impact of the higher production within this five-year period is
limited.
In a cold year a notable increase in pressure can be observed at the Eastern margin of the field, where the Borgsweer
water disposal well is located. Given the higher production volumes associated with the lower average temperatures,
compared to the average temperature case, more associated condensed water is produced from the Groningen
clusters, and subsequently reinjected at Borgsweer.
Figure 3-8:
Reservoir pressure for “Basispad Kabinet” Cold Temperature. Lines by production cluster, colours by production
region.
Seismic Risk Assessment for Production Scenario “Basispad Kabinet” for the Groningen field - June 2018
31
Figure 3-9:
Incremental reservoir pressure decline for Cold scenario as compared to the Average temperature scenario,
between 1/1/2018 and 1/1/2023.
Production capacity
The higher utilization of South-West and East-Central is also evident from Figure 3-10 and 3.11. The East-Central
clusters initially produce at full capacity (within the Load Factor restriction). Note that the maximum Load Factor was
increased from 0.7 to 0.75 in order to meet periods of peak gas demand during the first few years. Some spare
capacity remains available towards the South-West (EKL, SW2-3).
Seismic Risk Assessment for Production Scenario “Basispad Kabinet” for the Groningen field - June 2018
32
Figure 3-10:
Forecasted production (green lines) and capacity (blue lines) per region for cold temperature
Seismic Risk Assessment for Production Scenario “Basispad Kabinet” for the Groningen field - June 2018
33
Figure 3-11:
Load Factor per region and start-up group.
Seismic Risk Assessment for Production Scenario “Basispad Kabinet” for the Groningen field - June 2018
34
3.3
“Basispad Kabinet” – Warm Temperature
The “Basispad Kabinet” cold and warm production profiles give the extreme temperature end members from the
past 31 years. Consecutive occurrence of 10 warm, average or cold years is highly unlikely. However, analysing these
end member profiles is useful to ensure that the operational philosophy is suitable to meet demand, while minimizing
seismic hazard and risk in periods of cold and warm temperature.
Gas Production
Figure 3.12 gives the regional break-down of the production profile for the warm temperature scenario. Bierum and
Eemkskanaal are again operated as per the average temperature case. The South-East region can now carry a larger
proportional share (some 35-55% prior to the nitrogen blending plant), and from 2023 onwards it can provide the
required production volumes on its own. Only a modest volume is required from the South-West.
The larger part of the production demand can be met by the first three start-up groups (SE, CE1, SW1).
Figure 3-12:
Production by region and start-up group (“Basispad Kabinet” – Warm Temperature)
Reservoir pressure
Figure 3.13 and Figure 3.14 show the impact of the reduced production volumes in the Warm scenario on reservoir
pressure. The depletion in the South and East of the field is up to about 10 bar less than in the average temperature
Dostları ilə paylaş: |