Seismic Risk Assessment for
Production Scenario “Basispad Kabinet” for the Groningen field - June 2018
63
2018 - 2022
2023 - 2027
2028 - 2032
Figure 5.2
Local Personal Risk graphs for the three 5-year periods (2018 to 2023, 2024 to 2028 and 2029 to 2033). These show the number of houses that are exposed to
a LPR. The black lines denote the mean and the dark grey areas the uncertainty bands. The two horizontal bands in light grey denote the LPR levels of the
Meijdam-Norm.
Production Scenario
Weather
Year
Mean LPR 10
-5
/year
Mean LPR 10
-4
/year
Basispad Kabinet
Average Year
2018
1256
0
Basispad Kabinet
Average Year
2019
1478
0
Basispad Kabinet
Average Year
2020
1354
0
Basispad Kabinet
Average Year
2021
1109
0
Basispad Kabinet
Average Year
2022
678
0
Basispad Kabinet
Average Year
2023
225
0
Basispad Kabinet
Average Year
2024
88
0
Basispad Kabinet
Average Year
2025
40
0
Basispad Kabinet
Average Year
2026
28
0
Basispad Kabinet
Average Year
2027
15
0
ReferenceCase (24 Bcm/year)
Average Year
2018
2138
0
ReferenceCase (24 Bcm/year)
Average Year
2019
2545
0
ReferenceCase (24 Bcm/year)
Average Year
2020
2859
0
ReferenceCase (24 Bcm/year)
Average Year
2021
3044
0
ReferenceCase (24 Bcm/year)
Average Year
2022
3391
0
ReferenceCase (24 Bcm/year)
Average Year
2023
3228
0
ReferenceCase (24 Bcm/year)
Average Year
2024
3894
1
ReferenceCase (24 Bcm/year)
Average Year
2025
4020
1
ReferenceCase (24 Bcm/year)
Average Year
2026
4414
115
ReferenceCase (24 Bcm/year)
Average Year
2027
4761
115
Table 5.1a
Number of buildings exceeding 10
-5
/year and 10
-4
/year level for LPR, for different production and temperature scenarios. See main text for further explanation.
These are shown for each year of the period 2018 to 2027 for the production scenario “Basispad Kabinet” for an average weather year and the reference case
of 24 Bcm/year.
Seismic Risk Assessment for Production Scenario “Basispad Kabinet” for the Groningen field - June 2018
66
Production Scenario
Weather
Year
Mean LPR 10
-5
/year
Mean LPR 10
-4
/year
Basispad Kabinet
Cold Year
2018
1660
0
Basispad Kabinet
Cold Year
2019
2521
0
Basispad Kabinet
Cold Year
2020
2164
0
Basispad Kabinet
Cold Year
2021
1726
0
Basispad Kabinet
Cold Year
2022
1197
0
Basispad Kabinet
Cold Year
2023
466
0
Basispad Kabinet
Cold Year
2024
349
0
Basispad Kabinet
Cold Year
2025
172
0
Basispad Kabinet
Cold Year
2026
38
0
Basispad Kabinet
Cold Year
2027
27
0
Basispad Kabinet
Warm Year
2018
1210
0
Basispad Kabinet
Warm Year
2019
1074
0
Basispad Kabinet
Warm Year
2020
916
0
Basispad Kabinet
Warm Year
2021
781
0
Basispad Kabinet
Warm Year
2022
640
0
Basispad Kabinet
Warm Year
2023
91
0
Basispad Kabinet
Warm Year
2024
62
0
Basispad Kabinet
Warm Year
2025
31
0
Basispad Kabinet
Warm Year
2026
20
0
Basispad Kabinet
Warm Year
2027
2
0
Table 5.1b
Number of buildings exceeding 10
-5
/year and 10
-4
/year norm for LPR, for different production and temperature scenarios. See main text for further explanation.
These are shown for each year of the period 2018 to 2027 for the production scenario “Basispad Kabinet” for cold weather and warm weather years.