309
THE ROLE OF THE CAUCASIAN AND CENTRAL ASIAN OIL
IN THE WORLD ECONOMY
Shilpa G. BAGUL, Arun S. DALVI
Dept of Defence & Strategic Studies
University of Pune
Pune / India
shilpgb@yahoo.com
ABSTRACT
Recently the gravity of the global economic growth shifted towards the Eurasian landmass. Itinerary of this transition goes
through western countries and Asia Pacific regions illustrating West’s shrinking reliance on the Middle East for Oil & Gas. As
alternative Central Asian and Caucasus region relatively very cheap, hence emerging fast with the new look on the world
economy map. Because of the geo-strategic significance of natural resources, which lay beneath and is contributing major role in
the world economy, these republics are getting especial attention.
The Caspian Sea region including the Sea and the surrounding states are important world energy market because of its
potential to become a major oil and natural gas exporter over the next decade. The region has been estimated to hold the world’s
third largest oil and gas resources just behind Middle East and Russia. Oil contribution through the pipeline policy and the
transportation route creates the geo-political and geo-strategic impact on the Center part of the Caspian basin to the various
countries in the World Island. The Caucasus is still the Silk route linking especially to Central Asia and Europe.
It has emerged as a potentially energy rich region while estimates of the region’s reserves vary widely. There is consensus
that the region could play a vital role in affording a modicum of supply diversifying options for countries of the Caspian Basin as
an area including the littoral states of Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Russia and Iran. This paper discusses the role and
prospects of the Central Asian and Caucasus oil in the world economy along with the background of regions. Inspection of world
Oil resources shows potential and availability of oil and gas reserves of Caucasus and Central Asia.
ABBREVIATIONS
CARs: Central Asia Republics
TCRs: Transcaucasus Republics/Regions
OPEC: Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries
OECD: Organization for Economic Cooperation and
Development
EIO:
Energy Information Outlook
Bcf:
Billion cubic Feet
BTC: Baku-Tblisi-Cyhen
Tcm:
Trillion Cubic Meter
1. INTRODUCTION
Oil is an important factor in the Eurasian
region, which includes the Central Asia and
Caucasus with Russia to the north, Iran and
Afghanistan to the South, and China to the east.
The countries of the Central Asia and Caucasus
(South Caucasus-Azerbaijan) find that their
strategic energy export may play main role in the
world economy. Significance of Heartland and
Rimland theories are understood because of the
geo-strategic location of these regions. Today
these theories remain main focal points to study
these regions because of the major oil factor. The
Caspian Sea region including the Sea and the
states surrounding it are important world energy
market because of its potential to become a
foremost oil and natural gas exporter over the next
decade. The region is thought to hold the world’s
third largest oil and gas resources behind the
Middle East and Russia.
During the Soviet expansion Baku contributed
its oil natural resources to world economy. The
natural flow of oil and gas at Baku is one of the
most spectacular in the world and has been
narrated since the earliest times. One European
traveler, Marco Polo, who visited northern Russia
in 1271-3, came to Baku at the end of 13
th
Century. While travelling along the Ancient Silk
Route, wrote of a spring that spouted a liquid
“good to burn”.
This paper focuses on the regions contribution
(especially in the oil and gas sector) in the global
economy. Emerged from the debris of the Soviet
Union, Republics of Central Asia and Caucasus
immediately embarked on the process to be a
significant part of the world economy especially
because of the natural resources, mainly oil and
gas. If properly exploited, oil resources in the
region could become the driving force behind a
broad economic development. Raw materials
extraction particularly of fuels, beside the
transportation to the market figures as a key
component in resuscitating economic growth in
these republics, is generating vital foreign exchange
earning and attracting foreign investment.
2. WORLD OIL RESOURCES AND ITS
STRATEGIC IMPORTANCE
The CARs and TCRs, landlocked and hidden
behind the Iron curtain of the Soviet Union for
many years, have emerged in the last decade as a
Caucasus and Central Asia in the Globalization Process
310
potentially energy rich region. While estimates of
the region’s reserves vary widely, there is
consensus that the region could play a vital role in
affording a modicum of supply diversifying
options for countries of the region. As of January
2006, proved world oil reserves, as reported by
Oil & Gas Journal were estimated at 1,293 billion,
15 billion barrels higher than the estimate for
2005. Of the world’s total proved oil reserves 71
% is located in the Middle East and Canada
(where the Canadian Association of Petroleum
Producers includes 174.1 billion barrels of
Canadian oil sands as a conventional reserve).
Among the top 20 oil reserve holders are OPEC
member countries that together account for 65 %
of the world’s total reserves.
1
(See Table 1, 2)
The expected contribution from these regions
energy resources are based on various sources.
According to the US Department of Energy’s
office of Russian and Eurasian Affairs, Lana
Ekimoff stated that by 2010, countries in the
region expect to export up to 4 million barrels of
oil and 680 million cubic meters of Natural Gas
per day. The production of Caspian oil and gas is
pretty modest compared to the 45 million barrels
per day produced by Organization of Petroleum
Exporting Countries members, still it helps to
diversify global energy supply; which ultimately
contributes to global energy security.
2
The
challenge is to help the region achieve greater
economic independence by expanding its export
options through a regional east–west energy
corridor consisting of multiple pipelines. This is
changing the landscape of Eurasia into an
important situation.
In addition, oil production in the non OECD
Europe and Eurasian region would exceed 14.0
million barrels per day in 2015, based largely on
the potential investment outlook for the Caspian
Basin region, where long-term production
potential still remains with considerable optimism.
Caspian output would more than double to 4.2
million barrels per day in 2015 and increase
steadily according to the EIO 2006.
3
Table 2 shows estimates of the conventional
oil resources segregated by regions in the year
2025. Reserve growth and undiscovered estimates
are based on the World Petroleum Assessment
2000 by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). The
oil resource base is defined by three categories:
remaining reserves (oil that has been discovered
but not produced); reserve growth (increases in
reserves resulting mainly from technological
factors that enhance a field’s recovery rate); and
undiscovered (oil that remains to be found through
exploration).
Table 1. World Oil Reserves by Country as of 1 January
2006 (Billion Barrels)
Country
Oil Reserves
Saudi Arabia
264.3
Canada
178.8
Iran
132.5
Iraq
115.0
Kuwait
101.5
UAE
97.8
Venezuela
79.7
Russia
60.0
Libya
39.1
Nigeria
35.9
United State
21.4
China
18.3
Qatar
15.2
Mexico
12.9
Algeria
11.4
Brazil
11.2
Kazakhstan
9.0
Norway
7.7
Azerbaijan
7.0
India
5.8
Rest of World
68.1
Total
1,292.5
Source: Energy Information Administration / International
Energy Outlook, 2006
Table 2. Estimated World Oil Resources (Billion Barrels),
1995-2025
a
Region
Proved
Reserves
Reserve
Growth
Un-
discovered
Total
OECD
United States
21.4
76.0
83.0
180.4
Canada
178.8
12.5
32.6
223.9
Mexico
12.9
25.6
45.8
84.3
OECD Europe
15.1
20.0
35.9
71.0
Japan
0.1
0.1
0.3
0.5
Australia /
New Zealand
1.5
2.7
5.9
10.1
Non-OECD
Russia
60.0
106.2
115.3
281.5
Other Non-
OECD Europe/
Eurasia
19.1
32.3
55.6
107.0
China
18.3
19.6
14.6
52.5
India
5.8
3.8
6.8
16.4
Other Non-
OECD Asia
10.3
14.6
23.9
48.8
Middle East
743.4
252.5
269.2
1265.1
Africa
102.6
73.5
124.7
300.8
Central and
South America
103.4
90.8
125.3
319.5
Total World
1,292.5
730.2
938.9
2,961.6
OPEC
901.7
395.6
400.5
1,697.9
Non-OPEC
390.9
334.6
538.4
1,263.9
a
The U.S. Geological Survey’s assessment extends only to
2025
Source: Energy Information Administration/ International
Energy Outlook, 2006, p.29
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