141
will deepen and diversify the market for U.S.-produced
natural gas, making the potential for a
precipitous price-driven downturn in production activities less likely, not more likely.
Finally, we reject the claims that exports will have a negative impact on employment.
Sierra Club points to a study conducted by Weinstein and Partridge (the Weinstein study) to
support its position.
324
However, we have considered the analysis contained in the Weinstein
study in several LNG export orders, and found that the Weinstein
Study showed only a
statistically insignificant decline in employment in the regions studied in the years before a
drilling boom (2001 to 2005), compared to the years during the drilling boom (2005 to 2009).
325
This small decline could have been the result of other factors, particularly since the years of the
drilling boom coincided with a national economic recession. On the other hand, comparing the
same time periods, we found that the Weinstein study showed substantial gains in
economic
growth rates in counties with drilling operations as opposed to those without. For the same
reasons provided in those orders
, we reject Sierra Club’s arguments here.
326
3.
Price Impacts
As discussed above, the 2014 and 2015 LNG Export Studies projected the economic
impacts of LNG exports in a
range of scenarios, including scenarios that exceeded the current
amount of LNG exports authorized in the final non-FTA export authorizations to date
(equivalent to a total of 21.0 Bcf/d of natural gas with the issuance of this Order).
327
The 2015
Study concluded that LNG exports at these levels (in excess of 12 Bcf/d of natural gas) would
result in higher U.S. natural gas prices, but that these price changes would remain in a relatively
324
Sierra Club Mot. at 67 & n.266 (discussing Weinstein and
Partridge,
The Economic Value of Shale Natural Gas
in Ohio, Ohio State University, Swank Program in Rural-Urban Policy Summary & Report (Dec. 2010)).
325
See,
e.g., Sabine Pass Liquefaction, LLC,
DOE/FE Order No. 3669, at 192.
326
See id.
327
See infra § XII.E.
142
narrow range across the scenarios studied. However, even with these estimated price increases,
the 2015 Study found that the United States would experience net economic benefits from
increased LNG exports in all cases studied.
328
We have also reviewed EIA’s AEO 2017, published in January 2017. The Reference
case of this projection includes the effects of the Clean Power Plan (CPP),
discussed supra,
which is intended to reduce carbon emissions from the power sector. DOE/FE assessed the AEO
2017 to evaluate any differences from AEO 2014, which formed the basis for the 2014 Study.
Comparing key results from 2040 (the end of the projection period in Reference case
projections from AEO 2014) shows that the latest Reference case Outlook foresees lower-48
market conditions that would be even more supportive of LNG exports,
including higher
production and demand coupled with notably lower prices. Results from EIA’s AEO 2017
no-CPP case, which is the same as the Reference case but does not include the CPP, are also
more supportive of LNG exports on the basis of higher production with lower prices relative to
AEO 2014.
For the year 2040, the AEO 2017 Reference case anticipates 3 percent more
natural gas
production in the lower-48 than AEO 2014. It also projects an average Henry Hub natural gas
price that is lower than AEO 2014 by 38 percent. With regard to exports, the AEO 2017
projection’s for 2040 net pipeline exports of 3.7 Bcf/d and lower-48 LNG exports of 12.1 Bcf/d
(over 63 percent higher than lower-48 LNG exports in AEO 2014) illustrate a market
environment supportive of LNG exports.
In the AEO 2017 no-CPP case, for the year 2040, lower-48 production is 2 percent higher
than in AEO 2014, with the Henry Hub price 39 percent lower. Net pipeline exports of 3.8 Bcf/d
328
See 2015 Study at 8, 82.