156
Figure 3: Life Cycle GHG Emissions for Natural Gas and Coal Power in Europe
361
361
LCA GHG Report at 9 (Figure 6-1).
629
606
612
1,089
787
754
887
1,095
0
250
500
750
1,000
1,250
1,500
1,750
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Coal
: E
ur
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Coal
: E
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100-yr GWP
20-yr GWP
G
re
en
ho
use
G
as
Em
issi
on
s A
R5 G
W
P
(kg
C
O
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W
h)
Natural Gas/Coal Extraction
Natural Gas Processing
Domestic
Pipeline Transport
Liquefaction
Tanker/Rail Transport
Tanker Berthing & Deberthing
157
Figure 4: Life Cycle GHG Emissions for Natural Gas and Coal Power in Asia
362
While acknowledging substantial uncertainty, the LCA GHG Report shows that to the extent
U.S. LNG exports are preferred over coal in LNG-importing nations, U.S. LNG exports are
likely to reduce global GHG emissions. Further, to the extent U.S.
LNG exports are preferred
over other forms of imported natural gas, they are likely to have only a small impact on global
GHG emissions.
363
The LCA GHG Report does not answer the ultimate question whether authorizing exports
of natural gas to non-FTA nations will increase or decrease global GHG emissions, because
regional coal and imported
natural gas are not the only fuels with which U.S.-exported LNG
would compete. U.S. LNG exports may also compete with renewable energy, nuclear energy,
petroleum-based liquid fuels, coal imported from outside East Asia or Western Europe,
362
LCA GHG Report at 10 (Figure 6-2).
363
Id. at 9, 18.
660
613
661
1,089
824
763
1,009
1,095
0
250
500
750
1,000
1,250
1,500
1,750
N
G:
N
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ns
to
Sha
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ha
i, C
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na
N
G:
Da
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, Au
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N
G:
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am
al
, R
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Co
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: C
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Re
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Da
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, Au
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, J
ap
an
N
G:
Y
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al
, R
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to
Sha
ng
ha
i, C
hi
na
Co
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: C
hi
ne
se
Re
gi
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al
100-yr GWP
20-yr GWP
G
re
en
ho
use
G
as
Em
issi
on
s A
R5 G
W
P
(kg
C
O
₂e
/M
W
h)
Natural Gas/Coal Extraction
Natural Gas Processing
Domestic Pipeline Transport
Liquefaction
Tanker/Rail Transport
Tanker Berthing & Deberthing
158
indigenous natural gas, synthetic
natural gas derived from coal, and other resources, as well as
efficiency and conservation measures. To model the effect that U.S. LNG exports would have
on net global GHG emissions would require projections of how each of these fuel sources would
be affected in each LNG-importing nation. Such an analysis would not only have to consider
market dynamics in each of these countries over the coming decades,
but also the interventions
of numerous foreign governments in those markets.
For example, Sierra Club and other commenters have observed that renewable energy has
experienced significant growth in key LNG-importing countries such as India and China. These
commenters do not, however, place the growth of renewable energy in
the context of the
aggregate use of fossil energy projects in those countries. Nor do they explain the extent to
which growth in renewable energy has been driven by public policies in those countries and how
the availability of U.S. LNG exports would or would not impact the continuation of those
policies.
The uncertainty associated with estimating each of these factors would likely render such
an analysis too speculative to inform the public interest determination in this or other non-FTA
LNG export proceedings. Accordingly, DOE/FE elected to focus on
the discrete question of how
U.S. LNG compares on a life cycle basis to regional coal and other sources of imported natural
gas in key LNG-importing countries. This is a useful comparison because coal and imported
natural gas are prevalent fuel sources for electric generation in non-FTA LNG-importing nations.
For example, EIA notes that installed electric generation capacity in China was 63 percent coal
and 4 percent natural gas in 2013.
364
For India, installed electric generation capacity in 2014 is
364
U.S. Energy Information Administration, China Analysis Brief (last updated May 14, 2015),
available at:
http://www.eia.gov/beta/international/analysis.cfm?iso=CHN.