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3.2. Scenario Planning in Japanese government
Referring to the Figure 4., one can observe that the tales from Japan in this paper
confirm this theoretical framework. Different stages of policy making require
different function of the scenario planning. In Japanese policy making process,
government sometimes calls for a scenario style brainstorming event with participants
outside the government, such as NGOs and academics. However these initiatives
appear when the process is in the stage of issue identification and/or issue-framing
and agenda-setting; that is the early stage of policy making process. This is seen in
“Energy 2030” and, in a sense, in “Nuclear Power Scenarios 2005”. In ‘politically
matured society’ there is a legitimate call from civic society for more involvement in
the policy making process and Japan is not an exception. Those who wish to have a
say on issues and agendas ask for venues to express, and government responds by
providing the venues. For public servants, who have to administrate to make this
venue happen with papers and budget, following right process is the base for the
authenticity of the venue and discussion. And for scenario practitioners, as private
consultants, they see this as the market to offer their expertness, and they
commercially compete by proposing the rightest process and rightest venue to the
clients/sponsors in the public sector. This circumstance may eventually lead to the
standardization (and mechanization) of both process and venue.
On the other hand, when the process develops to the stage of policy development and
policy measure assessment, Japanese government officialdom turns to be cautious to
invite voices from outside. Obviously the policy making stage has reached the
“close-down alternative”. As said above, bureaucrats will have to maneuver and craft
compromise with limited number of stakeholders.
My experience of scenario projects for Japanese public organizations ranges from the
early phase of “open up alternatives” to the later phase. In some cases, the scenario
planning was employed to appraise the robustness of the preferred options for future
actions. Alike the story of “CEO fires hjimself”, the facilitation for decision making
support was a no laughing business. In this paper I can share few of the cases where
bureaucrats were participants. Circumstances make me hesitant to publicise.
Accordingly following analysis and discussion would be argued with inadequate data
and examples, with regret, and scant to academic interests, with regret.
Let me allow moving forward by stating my general observation.
As a practitioner I have noticed a distinctive psychological barrier that Japanese
government officials show in the scenario-type discussion.
Following, I am going to discuss the nature and origin of this barrier.
3.3. A Practitioner’s Tool: normative and exploratory approach
When I was conducting a workshop with government officials as my client, a
symptom of this psychological barrier could often be observed.
In the scenario developing process a practitioner can choose one of the two
approaches of how to frame scenarios i.e. normative approach and exploratory one.
Everyone who has some knowledge of scenario planning theory has encountered this
dichotomy in the way that a scenario framework and stories can be shaped, and in
16
how the workshop can be conducted
6
. This distinction is theoretically important, and
often rescues the practitioner when he or she is stuck and confused in the middle of a
workshop discussion.
The normative approach starts with that the set of characteristics at the end of time
horizon, and works backwards to see what would take to get there. This approach is
employed when the client knows the future he wants to describe. On the other hand,
the exploratory approach can be used when the client doesn’t need to be ready for his
desired future. With the exploratory approach the client is open to explore and take
up any uncertainties which might affect his future plans and wishes to achieve.
In general, the scenario exercises for Japanese government organizations follow the
normative approach. As explained in “Energy 2030”, bureaucrats can admit that the
future is not a simple extrapolation of the past quantitatively modelled; however they
very often cling on to one single future, which is desirable for them. Recognising that
this is normative, scenario practitioners can assist them in understanding that the
future can take several different shapes. In practice, the facilitator can allow the
bureaucrats to write up a story line leading to their desirable future. Then in the next
stage, the facilitator can ask them to think about the plausibility of the story they
made, and to think through the critical uncertainties which might prevent the smooth
development of their story from the present. I call this thinking process “derailment”.
Hence the bureaucrats are allowed to always refer to their normatively constructed
future, with their exploratory adventure of derailing from it.
The exploratory approach is another choice, but I have learned that for public servants,
this approach is psychologically challenging. In the course of exploring vague,
unshaped uncertainties in the future, some of them start to feel insecure and soon
invent excuses not to turn up at all. They feel insecure because this approach deploys
qualitative, rather than quantitative, analysis
7
. When exploring, we have to get rid of
the anchor of data sets and conventional modelling, and learn to experiment with the
top-down, or ‘deductive’ approach. Because the data set and conventional framework
is the prime source of confidence and legitimacy among bureaucrats, they often see
the scenarios formulated through the exploratory approach either as baseless or
overambitious.
This paper is not arguing that the normative approach our bureaucrats so much like is
inappropriate. A society can agree on
its desired direction, such as sustainable
development, after which government and individual bureaucrats move on to their
own agenda of how they can influence transition. However, as Grin et.al discussed
[Grin, 2010] it seems reasonable to say that some issues are open-ended, and are best
approached, or explored, with a mind-set that allows for the possibility of change.
Now let us go into more detail on the characteristics of the bureaucracy in Japan. I
want to conduct my argument that the characteristics I am going to introduce would
be a prime mover that the bureaucrats prefer and cling on to the normative approach
notwithstanding in the early stage of policy making process.
6
See, Scenarios: The art of strategic conversation
, Kees van der Heijden,1996, John Wiley & Sons,
pp.195-216
7
See, Shell International Ltd (2003), Scenarios: An Explorer’s Guide, London: PXS Shell International.
p.16. It argues that, “The story form of scenarios enables both qualitative
and quantitative aspects to
be incorporated, so ideas are not excluded on the basis that they can’t be measured.”