Economist Takes Know-how
to Online Dating Market
A
professor of economics at the University of Chicago, Ali Hortacsu, R C 9 2 has an
unusual take on a field most people associate with number crunching and abstract
mathematical models of monetary issues. His research applies different models to t r y |
and predict the nature of interaction in areas as unconventionally real world as eBay or the
online dating market - with astonishing success.
The conventional economist belief is that in markets, price will adjust to make supply
equal d e m a n d . Hortacsu says his research tries to figure out how market institutions in the
real world equilibrate supply and demand, and formulate ways to make them operate more
efficiently. For instance, auctions are typically a good way to find the price at which supply • t " ' * "
equals demand because the price of any good goes up until only one bidder remains. But what happens, Hortacsu asks, in
a market like eBay when s o m e bidders are experts who know a lot more about the quality/value of the good than others
or where bidders can see how much other people bid. On eBay, where auctions have a set ending time, an expert may
enter her bid at the very last second -- so that other, less-informed bidders do not have time to respond.
"There are many details present in real-world markets that create room for a rich array of strategic interactions," says
H o r t a c s u . "Quite a bit of my work focuses on writing down mathematical models to try to predict the nature of strategic
interactions that may arise in real world markets." The example on eBay for instance is from a paper he wrote with
Patrick Bajari in which they tested several predictions of a strategic model of bidding using data from eBay. That paper
was the first to use eBay as an "online laboratory" (as the New York Times put it) and received a lot of attention from
economic researchers around the world. Hortacsu has conducted similar studies of deregulated electricity markets (which
use auctions to determine the price of electricity for every hour) and s o m e very large auctions conducted in financial
markets (for example, the US government auctions around 2 trillion dollars of debt every year). Bidding in these auctions
is considerably more difficult to model mathematically -- but Hortacsu says his mathematical models
of strategic behavior (derived using game theory) can explain bidder behavior "extremely well". "The
nice thing about having a mathematical model that can fit observed data is that you can then use
the model to answer all sorts of questions like 'what will happen if we change the bidding r u l e s ? ' " he
says. Methods developed by Hortacsu have been used by researchers studying monetary policy
operations of the European Central Bank and Treasury auctions in Brazil, Canada, Czech Republic and Korea to assess the
prospective gains/losses from reforming auction rules.
It is not that far a conceptual leap from these studies to online dating, Hortacsu says, as it is not "a big stretch to think
about the process of finding a spouse as participating in a 'market'".
He explains: "I started my research on online dating to study how this market clears in the absence of prices. Basically,
what we observe are a round of e-mails by men (and sometimes women) to initiate contact and to (hopefully) get a date.
S o m e of these e-mails lead to a conversation, which may turn into a first date or even a marriage; s o m e of the e-mails
may fall on deaf ears, or be responded to with a polite "No." What my collaborators and I quickly realized is that the
patterns of who decides to e-mail who, and who replies affirmatively to who, reveal a lot about how each side of the
market values the attributes of a potential match. Moreover, we can also analyze the trade-offs between different
attributes -- for example, how much more income a man has to have in order to compensate for being shorter than
average (yes, it's a very shallow world out there); or how much income is needed to overcome racial boundaries (a lot).
We also are able to compare the revealed preferences (based on people's e-mailing behavior) regarding race vs. stated
preferences -- what we document is that people who state that race is not a factor for them make choices (when e¬
mailing and/or replying) that are no different from those who express a preference for a same-race match. In this market,
as in others, actions speak much louder than words." Hortacsu hopes to be able to apply his findings to aid online dating
companies to provide better recommendations to their users as to who they should consider asking out for a date. Today,
the number of people registered on a company like Match.com, especially in large metro areas, is getting far beyond the
number of profiles that an average user has time to browse through. Their results can help companies like Match.com
make personalized recommendations to their users, and search more efficiently.
"I never thought that getting a Ph.D. in economics would place me squarely in the matchmaking business," he says,
laughing. "But I think the marriage market is one of the most important markets in the world, and I'll be very happy if
s o m e of my research can help make this particular market operate more efficiently."
Aslı Abbasoğlu, RC 2000
Young Designer Taking the
Fashion World By Storm
F
or s o m e o n e who graduated from Robert College as recently as six years
ago, Aslı Abbasoğlu, RC 2 0 0 0 , has e n s u r e d her star has begun to sparkle
by making her mark in the cutthroat world of fashion in Turkey.
An exceptional student, Aslı received her degree in Fashion Design from
the prestigious P a r s o n s S c h o o l of Design in P a r i s , having been awarded the
accolade of " S o p h o m o r e of the Y e a r " for her first two years, which led her to
pack her sewing m a c h i n e and head for the lights of New York where she
c o m p l e t e d her final two years. In New York, she participated in various design
c o m p e t i t i o n s o r g a n i z e d by the Council of Fashion Designers of A m e r i c a
(CFDA), where her greatest a c h i e v e m e n t was to reach the semi finals. Not
content with this result, Aslı went on to participate in the " D e s i g n in D e n i m "
competition jointly organized by Calvin Klein and Nylon M a g a z i n e , which not
surprisingly, she won.
Under the tutelage of y o u n g designer to the stars Patrick Rzepski, Aslı
finished her thesis which was inspired from the ballet of S c h e h e r a z a d e and
Bakst, for which she was ultimately awarded the " P a r s o n s G o l d e n T h i m b l e "
award. World f a m o u s d e p a r t m e n t store Saks Fifth A v e n u e was so impressed
by the quality of the designs displayed at the fashion show at the end of the
s e m e s t e r that s o m e creations were displayed in the store's windows.
A r m e d with her knowledge, experience and drive, Aslı decided to return to
the innovative fashion scene in Istanbul. After working for a year and a half
for A b b a t e as assistant to famed designer Ümit Ünal, she has just transferred
to B e y m e n Club. At A b b a t e , her work took her regularly to C o m o , Italy, home
to many famous tie-makers, where in a short space of time she selected
designs and then adapted them to the Turkish market. Aslı has also been
given the opportunity to develop herself further by working on Ümit Ünal's
out-of-office projects s u c h as organizing fashion s h o w s .
Aslı told the RCQ that she e m p h a s i z e s at every opportunity how important
it has been to be an RC graduate. She said "At RC students are given the
opportunity to nurture talents and are e n c o u r a g e d to develop their interest in
specific subjects. S t u d e n t s can develop skills through the wide variety of
lessons that are available. I had the opportunity to develop my creative side
by taking lessons s u c h as film making and film analysis, which prepared me
thoroughly for when I went on to study fashion. Robert College has an
excellent reputation overseas which has always been to my advantage and
RC taught me to be able to develop my thoughts and to be open minded.''
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