What Remains of Milton Friedman's Monetarism?
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- Bu səhifədəki naviqasiya:
- Figure 1 Growth of Nominal Output and Lagged Money
- Figure 2 Inflation and Lagged Money Growth
- Figure 3 Fed Funds Rate and Core PCE Inflation
- Figure 4 M1 Step Function and Recessions: 1906-1945
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_____. “Arthur Burns and Milton Friedman: Why did the Master (Burns) and the Disciple (Friedman) Understand Inflation in a Diametrically Opposed Way?” in eds. Robert A. Cord and J. Daniel Hammond, Milton Friedman: Contributions to Economics and Public Policy. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2016a. _____. “What Caused the Great Recession in the Eurozone?” Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Working Paper, August 2016b. Kaplan, Greg; Benjamin Moll; and Giovanni L. Violante. “A Note on Unconventional Monetary Policy in HANK.” January 28, 2016. Klein, Lawrence R. “The Keynesian Revolution Revisited.” in The Economic Studies Quarterly (Tokyo) XV (1), November 1964. Kollmann, Robert; Beatrice Pataracchia; Rafal Raciborski; Marco Ratto; Werner Roeger; and Lukas Vogel. “The Post-Crisis Slump in the Euro Area and the US: Evidence from an Estimated Three-Region DSGE Model.” Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute. Working Paper No. 269, February 2016. Koopmans, Tjalling. “Measurement Without Theory.” The Review of Economic Statistics 28 (August 1947), 161-72. Kydland, Finn E. and Edward C. Prescott. “Rules Rather than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans.” Journal of Political Economy 85 (June 1977), 473-91. _____. “Time to build and Aggregate Fluctuations.” Econometrica 50 (November 1982), 1345-70. Lucas, Robert E., Jr. “Rules, Discretion, and the Role of the Economic Advisor (1980).” in Robert E. Lucas, Jr., Studies in Business-Cycle Theory. Cambridge, MA: The MIT Press, 1981. Nelson, Edward. Milton Friedman and Economic Debate in the United States, Book 1 1932-1972, forthcoming. Orphanides, Athanasios. “Monetary Policy Rules Based on Real-Time Data.” The American Economic Review 91 (September 2001), 964-85. Patinkin, Don. Money, Interest, and Prices, New York: Harper & Row, 1965. PBS Newshour. “Nobel Prize-Winning Economist Milton Friedman Dies at Age 94,” November 16, 2006.
Poole, William. Money and the Economy: A Monetarist View. Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley Publishing Company, 1978. Romer, Christina D. and David H. Romer. “Does Monetary Policy Matter? A New Test in the Spirit of Friedman and Schwartz.” in NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989, vol. 4, pp. 121-170. Samuelson, Paul and Robert Solow. “Analytical Aspects of Anti-Inflation Policy (1960),” in Joseph Stiglitz, ed., The Collected Scientific Papers of Paul A. Samuelson. vol. 2, no. 102, 1966, 1336-53. Smets, Frank and Rafael Wouters. “Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles: a Bayesian DSGE Approach.” American Economic Review 97 (2007), 586-606. Taylor, John B. Getting Off Track: How Government Actions and Interventions Caused, Prolonged, and Worsened the Financial Crisis. Stanford, CA: Hoover Institution Press, 2009. 21
Woodford, Michael. “Inflation Targeting and Financial Stability.” NBER Working Paper 17967, April 2012. Wright, Jonathan H. “The Yield Curve and Predicting Recessions.” Finance and Economics Discussion Series Working Paper 2006-7, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, February 2006.
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48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 -5 0 5 10 15 20 -5 0 5 10 15 20 Nominal GDP M1+3.5%
Figure 1 Growth of Nominal Output and Lagged Money Percent
Percent Notes: Quarterly observations of 4-quarter moving averages of nominal GDP and M1. Beginning in 1956, M1 is lagged 2 quarters. The vertical line separates lagged and unlagged M1 growth. In 1981, M1 is shift-adjusted M1 (Bennett 1982). The M1 series is augmented by 3.5 percentage points. Shaded areas indicate recession. Heavy tick marks indicate fourth quarter of year. 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 -1 0
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 M1 Inflation Figure 2 Inflation and Lagged Money Growth Percent
Percent Notes: Inflation is the annualized percentage change in the fixed-weight GDP deflator over an 8-quarter period. The GNP deflator from Balke and Gordon (1986) is used before 1947. Money growth is the annualized percentage change in M1 over an 8-quarter period. Beginning in 1956 M1 is lagged 7 quarters. The vertical line separates lagged and unlagged M1 growth. In 1981, M1 is "shift-adjusted" (Bennett 1982). Heavy tick marks indicate fourth quarter of the year.
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-2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Percent
Percent Figure 3 Fed Funds Rate and Core PCE Inflation Fed funds rate Core Inflation Notes: Quarterly observations of annualized percentage changes in the core personal consumption expenditures deflator and the federal funds rate. Shaded areas indicate NBER recessions. Tick marks indicate first quarter of year. Source: Data from Haver Analytics. 1906 1908
1910 1912
1914 1916
1918 1920
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1930 1932
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1942 1944
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0 10 20 30 40 50 60 -40
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M1 Step Function and Recessions: 1906-1945 Percent
Percent Notes: Series are a three-month moving average of the annualized monthly money growth rates and a step function fitted to monthly annualized growth rates of money. Step function before May 1907 uses annual growth rates based on June observations of M2 from 1900-1907. Observations for money from June 1900 to May 1914 are for M2; observations from June 1914 to December 1945 are for M1. Data are from Friedman and Schwartz (1970). Shaded areas indicate NBER recessions. Heavy tick marks indicate December. Yüklə 1,84 Mb. Dostları ilə paylaş:
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