16
Schwartz methodology of concatenating episodes of monetary and real instability in
the hope of
“washing out” extraneous third factors remains essential. Their approach entails judgment about the
adventitious factors that cause the central bank to set its policy rate in a way that interferes with the
operation of the price system. Economists must resign themselves to the incessant, trained
intellectual combat of economics. It would, however, help if central banks communicated in terms of
a strategy, made explicit forecasts based on that strategy, and after the fact evaluated the
appropriateness of the strategy. That is, as urged by Friedman, they should follow an explicit rule.
Appendix: Real Rate of Interest
The real interest rates shown are the difference between either the Treasury bill rate or the
commercial paper rate and Greenbook (now Tealbook) inflation forecasts. The Greenbook contains
forecasts of the National Income and Product Accounts prepared by the staff of the Board of
Governors before FOMC meetings. Because FOMC meetings fall unevenly within quarters, the
maturity of the real rate varies from somewhat more than one quarter to somewhat less than two
quarters. The commercial paper rate is for prime nonfinancial paper placed through dealers
(A1/P1). The dates for the interest rates match the publication dates of the Greenbooks. From 1965
through 1969, interest rate data are from the New York Fed release “Commercial Paper.”
Subsequently, they are from the Board of Governor’s database or from Bloomberg. From 1965
through April 1971, the paper rate is for 4-6 month paper. Thereafter, if there are fewer than 135
days from the Greenbook date to the end of the subsequent quarter, the 3-month paper rate is used;
otherwise, the 6-month paper rate is used.
From 1966 through 1970, the forecasted inflation series is for the implicit GNP deflator.
From 1971 through March 1976, it is for the GNP fixed-weight index. Thereafter, until January
1980, the series used is the gross business product fixed-weight index. The Board staff forecasts for
“core” inflation become available in January 1980. From January 1980 until February 1986, the
gross domestic business product fixed-weight index excluding food and energy is used. Thereafter,
until January 2000, the CPI excluding food and energy is used. From January 2000 onward, the
personal consumption expenditures chain-weighted index excluding food and energy is used.
A weighted-average inflation rate for the period from the Greenbook date to the end of the
succeeding quarter is calculated from the Greenbook’s inflation forecasts for the current and
succeeding quarter. The weight given to the current quarter’s inflation rate is the ratio of the number
of days left in the current quarter to the number of days from the Greenbook date until the end of the
succeeding quarter. The weight given to the succeeding quarter’s inflation rate is the ratio of the
number of days in that quarter to the number of days from the Greenbook date until the end of the
succeeding quarter. This weighted-average forecasted-inflation rate is subtracted from the market
rate of interest in order to construct the series for the real rate of interest.
In the 1960s, the FOMC usually met more than 12 times per year. For example, it met 15
times in 1965. In order to make the real rate series monthly through 1978, if there was more than one
meeting per month, an observation was recorded only for the first meeting of the month. The FOMC
met only nine times in 1979. (Because the October 6, 1979, meeting was unscheduled, there was no
Greenbook and no real rate is calculated for this date.) It met 11 times in 1980. Starting in 1981, it
17
has met eight times a year.
For this reason, starting in 1979, the observations of the Greenbook real
rate series are less frequent than monthly.
The real rate series begins in November 1965 because the Greenbook first began to report
predictions of inflation for the November 1965 meeting. Until November 1968, for FOMC meetings
in the first two months of a quarter, the Greenbook often reported a forecast of inflation only for the
contemporaneous quarter. For this reason, for the following FOMC meeting dates, the real rate
calculated is only for the period to the end of the contemporaneous quarter, not to the end of the
succeeding quarter: 11/23/65, 1/11/66, 2/8/66, 4/12/66, 5/10/66, 6/7/66, 7/26/66, 11/1/66, 12/13/66,
1/10/67, 7/18/67, 10/24/67, 11/14/67, 1/9/68, 2/6/68, 4/30/68, 5/28/68, 7/16/68, 10/8/68, 10/17/72,
and 11/20-21/72. For these dates, the maturity of the interest rate used to calculate the real rate
varies between one and three months. For other dates, the maturity varies between three and six
months. For this reason, some of the variation in real rates reflects term-structure considerations.
This variation is a consequence of the fact that the FOMC meets at different times within a quarter
and the Greenbook inflation forecasts are for quarters.
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