The data shows that the government has been shifting strongly the IS
curve to the right in order to stimulate investments and increase the
GDP. The model predicts that such behavior will cause massive in-
flux of the foreign investments due to a higher real rate then the one
given by the CM curve.
Unfortunately the data is incomplete and it goes back only to 1998.
However, there is still enough data to see the pattern and the fact that
the model is correct in predicting the flow of capital.
The data presented here are the net investments. That is, the invest-
ments made by Croatia to other countries minus the investments from
other countries made into Croatia. If the model is correct, this number
should be negative. There should be more capital flowing into Croatia
then flowing out. And not to a surprise, the data clearly confirms the
model’s prediction. In 1998 net investments were -5145 million dol-
lars, in 1999 the net investments were -6334 million dollars, in 2000
net investments were -6862 million dollars and in 2001 the net invest-
ments were -5295 million dollars. The surprising fact is that the capi-
tal inflow is much greater than the capital expenditures done by the
government in the same period. There are several reasons why this
occurred. The prime suspects are the real appreciation and the nega-
tive current account, but further analysis of those issues is beyond the
scope of this paper. The main point I would like to point out is the fact
that the model predictions turned out to be correct and the stimula-
tions of the IS curve to increase the GDP are ineffective.
4.2 MONETARY POLICY
The monetary policy data is analyzed from 1995. There are several
reasons for that, the first one is the fact that in the early 1990s Croatia
suffered from high inflation rates. The inflation rates were several
hundred percent per year. At the end of 1993 the inflation rate was
1150%. The second main reason is the fact that the complete data in
only accessible from 1994. The main thing that has to be said even be-
fore we analyzed the data are yearly variances and variances per pe-
riod. The variance of changes in M1 in period from 1995 to 2001 is
25%. The per year average variance is 35%. The variance within the
time period varies from 109% in 2001 to 9% in 1996. The main rea-
son for this is the fact that the Board of Governors of Croatian Central
Bank behaves like the currency board whose main objective is to keep
415
NEVEN VIDAKOVIÆ: Application of the Mundell-Fleming on Small Open Economy
EKONOMIJA / ECONOMICS, 11 (3) str. 392 - 423 (2005)
www.rifin.com
the nominal exchange rate constant or within the a small rage of 3%.
Croatian National Bank is committed to something like gold stan-
dard, but we can call it the “currency standard” where Croatian Kuna
is fixed with the Deutsche Mark and now with the Euro. Although this
does provide monetary stability and correlates the inflation to the in-
flation in the Eurozone it limits the monetary authority to seriously
commit to contractinary or expansionary monetary policy.
The main question in our analysis is: how does this explain the
model? This fact goes strongly along with what the model predicts.
The policy committed to fixed exchange rate makes sure that the LM
curve is constantly balanced with the IS and CM curve. When Central
Bank adjusts the exchange rate of Croatian Kuna with euro, it is effec-
tively putting the LM curve back into the equilibrium. Since Croatia
is small, in monetary terms, the changes and shifts in LM curve occur
very fast and the curve is pushed back into equilibrium in matter of
days.
If there is a disturbance in the exchange rate due to the speculative at-
tack or because of changes in supply and demand, the Croatian Na-
tional Bank will notice it and act upon it in a matter of days. This is
why the variance is so high and the changes in M1 are so big and so
often. (look at the data in appendix)
4.3 OMOS IN CROATIA
The main way for a large economy to increase the currency in circula-
tion in order to decrease the interest rate and to stimulate the growth
through the spending in the economy is through the purchases of debt
instruments issued by the central government. The prime example of
this is the USA and the behavior of the Federal Reserve System.
When the Fed decides the economy needs some stimulus the FOMC
will declare the Fed’s target interest rate is going to be lowered. In or-
der to achieve this in the market the Federal Reserve brokers will go
into the open market and purchase the government bonds. The bonds
are purchased for the cash Fed prints. This is pretty much the main op-
erating framework for the increase of the currency in the circulation.
When the Fed decides the economy is undergoing a significant infla-
tionary pressure, the Fed will do the opposite in order to retract the
money from the economy, decrease the currency in circulation and
416
NEVEN VIDAKOVIÆ: Application of the Mundell-Fleming on Small Open Economy
EKONOMIJA / ECONOMICS, 11 (3) str. 392 - 423 (2005)
www.rifin.com
decrease the money aggregates thus stopping or preventing the infla-
tion.
Similar mechanisms can be used in Croatia. The Central bank can
also buy and sell the debt instruments that are issued by the Ministry
of Finance. The main disadvantage of this is the fact that the govern-
ment can use such system for seniorage in order to finance the budget
deficit. Such behavior will naturally be counter productive and will
cause inflationary pressure in the economy.
In order to prevent such scenario and potential abuse of the system
Croatia has slightly different system of controlling money aggre-
gates. The main idea is still to buy something and increase the amount
of currency in the economy and the levels of money aggregates. Since
the Central bank does not buy the government debt, they buy
so-called “hard currency” in the case of Croatian National Bank they
mostly buy Euros and before that, they would by the Deutsche Marks.
The principal is still the same. When the demand for currency is large,
like in the middle of summer because of the tourist season the central
bank will go to into the open market and buy Euros from commercial
banks since Croatia does not have a Forex market. In winter when the
demand for Kunas is smaller, the Central Bank will buy Kunas by is-
suing short-term debt instruments, which will pay very small interest
rates but are attractive to commercial banks that do not want to hold
lot of cash just sitting around. The debt instruments are essentially
certificates of deposits at the Central Bank. The deposits are sold
through the Dutch auction to whoever offers the smallest interest rate
on them.
The mechanism is rather specific, but at the same time, it is very good
because the amount of foreign reserves is constantly increasing. The
reader has probably noticed that when the central bank is putting
money into the economy, it is buying Euros, but when it is taking
money out of the economy, it is issuing CDs that are sold in open mar-
ket. This in effect has the ability to constantly increase the foreign re-
serves of the Croatian Central Bank. The latest data goes to the De-
cember of 1992 when the foreign reserves were 166.8 million of dol-
lars. In August of 2002 those reserves were 5.7 billion dollars.
Another benefit of a small open economy is the fact that there is not
much currency in circulation. Currently the value of pieces of paper
the which it says Kuna is only around 21 billion Kunas (July 2002) or
417
NEVEN VIDAKOVIÆ: Application of the Mundell-Fleming on Small Open Economy
EKONOMIJA / ECONOMICS, 11 (3) str. 392 - 423 (2005)
www.rifin.com
something like 2.8 billion dollars (1 Kuna = 7.5 $, November 2002).
So in order to keep the system stabile the Central bank needs around 1
billion dollars, but now they have 5.7 billion dollars and that money is
doing nothing except sitting in the vaults. .
4.3.1 Has the monetary policy been used properly?
Croatian monetary aggregates have been stable and for nine years.
There has been no significant increase in the rate of inflation and the
rate of inflation per see has been very stabile, within the levels that are
more then acceptable to an average macroeconomist. In 1998 infla-
tion was 5.4% and in subsequent years 4.4%,7.4% and in 2001 it was,
a record low, 2.6%. (for more data see the appendix)
Although Central Bank is the main contributor, the monetary stability
it has still failed to be a significant contributor the growth of Croatian
economy.
Here is an interesting discrepancy between small and large open
economy. In a big open economy like the United States monetary pol-
icy does not have a long-term impact on growth. In fact, we assume
monetary neutrality much before capital has time to adjust to the
monetary shocks. However, in a small open economy, heavily de-
pending on export markets like Croatia and due to the model pre-
sented, if properly used monetary policy has much a lot of power on
long-term growth through the manipulation of the real exchange rate.
The long term depreciation of the real exchange rate will have a posi-
tive effect on the exports and negative effects on the imports. This ex-
port-imports tradeoff can be positively used to fuel the long term
growth.
Unfortunately the model I created is a short term model and does not
make predictions about the long term movements in the real exchange
rate.
The equations in the part two of this paper heavily depend on the real
exchange rate. In part three I showed the monetary policy shocks will
be offset by capital inflows or outflows, but that does not stop the
Central Bank to depreciate currency several points above the inflation
rate each year. This becomes even easier to do when the open market
operations are set up the way they have been in Croatia. Since the
market is very small, it is relatively easy to affect nominal exchange
418
NEVEN VIDAKOVIÆ: Application of the Mundell-Fleming on Small Open Economy
EKONOMIJA / ECONOMICS, 11 (3) str. 392 - 423 (2005)
www.rifin.com
rate. This kind of slow real depreciation will cause A* to increase and
open new markets to Croatian producers.
The imports are a problem because the imports of the goods that
could be produced in the country cause the destruction of the domes-
tic industry through the real exchange rate. The main reason for this is
the overvalued currency. The overvaluation of currency exhibits it-
self through the constant real appreciation of the Croatian currency.
The data shows that the real exchange rate did not change much in the
six year period analyzed.
4.4 EFFECTS OF MONETARY AND FISCAL POLICY
In part three of this paper the model predicted the only way for the
monetary and fiscal policy to be effective is to have them work to-
gether, at the same time and to be approximately the same size. We
have seen that due to the way Croatian monetary authority conducts
monetary policy the LM curve is constantly kept in the IS-LM-CM
equilibrium. On the other hand, the government is undergoing con-
stant shocks to the government expenditures trying to stimulate the
aggregate demand, but the net effect has been zero. The model pre-
dicts the government policies to be offset by the capital inflow and
that the end effect is exactly what has been happening making in turn
government policies ineffective.
Such policies and the discrepancy between the way monetary and fis-
cal policies are conducted is inhibiting the long term growth.
CONCLUSION
In this paper, I have developed a macroeconomic model for a small
open economy. The focus of the model was the impacts the monetary
and fiscal policy have on a small open economy give the fact that the
capital is free to flow in and out of the country. The data used was
from Croatia, a small country is the middle of Europe that I perceive
is a good subject to see if the model works.
The data is very consistent with the model. The model predicted mon-
etary and fiscal policy, unless used together will not have any effect
the aggregate demand and output and in fact, the predictions were
consistent with the data.
419
NEVEN VIDAKOVIÆ: Application of the Mundell-Fleming on Small Open Economy
EKONOMIJA / ECONOMICS, 11 (3) str. 392 - 423 (2005)
www.rifin.com
SA ETAK
Cilj ovoga rada je istra iti primjenjivost Mundell-Flemingova
modela. Taj je model razvijen 1960-ih godina s namjerom otvaranja
standardno zatvorenih ekonomija kejnezijanskog IS-LM modela i
prilagoðavanje varijabli za tijek kapitala i ostale šokove koji iz njega
mogu proiziæi. Rad detaljno istra uje modele te usporeðuje IS-LM
model zatvorene i otvorene ekonomije. Isto tako, proširuje model za
primjenu na standardnu teoriju racionalnih oèekivanja. Nakon
izvoðenja modela, primjenjujem ga na malu otvorenu ekonomiju. U
ovom sam sluèaju izabrao Hrvatsku – malu otvorenu ekonomiju
usred Europe. Hrvatska je izabrana zato što prolazi tranziciju iz
socijalistièke planirane ekonomije prema otvorenoj kapitalistièkoj
ekonomiji te je vrlo podlo na tijekovima kapitala. Ovaj model vrlo
dobro odgovara podacima i dokazuje da monetarna i fiskalna
politika, ako se primjenjuju odvojeno, neæe imati utjecaja na
ekonomiju zbog tijekova kapitala.
BIBLIOGRAPHY:
Barsky, Robert; Mankiew, Gregory N; Zeldes, Stephen P “Ricardian
Consumers with Keynesian propensities” American Economic Review
76(4) 1986. pp. 676-691
Hicks, John “Mr. Keynes and the Classics: A suggested simplification”,
Econometrica, Vol. 5, No. 2, Apr., 1937. pp. 147-159
Keynes, John Maynard “General Theory of Money, Interest and
Employment”, New York, Harcourt, Brace, & World <1964>
Kimball, Miles “The Quantitative Analytics of the Basic Neomonetarist
Model," Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 27(4), 1995 Part 2,
1241-1277
Kimball, Miles and Weil Philippe “Macroecomics and Finance: a dynamic
and stochastic control approach” an unpublished manuscript
Lucas, Robert E. Jr. “Expectations and the Neutrality of Money” - “Studies
in business-cycle theory” - Cambridge, Mass. : MIT Press, 1981.
“Econometric policy evaluation – a critique” – “Studies in
business-cycle theory” - Cambridge, Mass. : MIT Press, 1981.
Lucas, Robert E. Jr. and Sargent, Thomas J. “After Keynesian Economics” –
“Rational expectations and econometric practice” / edited by Robert E.
Lucas, Jr. and Thomas J. Sargent.
Minneapolis : University of
Minnesota Press, c1981.
420
NEVEN VIDAKOVIÆ: Application of the Mundell-Fleming on Small Open Economy
EKONOMIJA / ECONOMICS, 11 (3) str. 392 - 423 (2005)
www.rifin.com
Mundell, Robert “International Economics”
New York : Macmillan
<1968>
Obstfeld, Maurice and Kenneth Rogoff : “The Six Major Puzzles in
International Macroeconomics: Is There a
Common Cause?” NBER
working paper w 7777
DATA APPENDIX
GDB (in mil. USD, nominal)
1993.
1994.
1995.
1996.
1997.
1998.
1999.
2000.
2001.
10.903
14.585
18.811
19.872
20.109
21.628
19.906*
18.427*
19.536*
GDB –changes per year (nominal)
1993.
1994.
1995.
1996.
1997.
1998.
1999.
2000.
2001.
-8,0
5,9
6,8
5,9
6,8
2,5
-0,9*
2,9*
3,8*
GDB -per capita (in USD)
1993.
1994.
1995.
1996.
1997.
1998.
1999.
2000.
2001.
2.349
3.137
4.029
4.422
4.398
4.805
4.371*
4.153*
4.403*
Inflation (% at the end of the period)
1993.
1994.
1995.
1996.
1997.
1998.
1999.
2000.
2001.
1.149,7
-3,0
3,7
3,4
3,8
5,4
4,4
7,4
2,6
Population (in mil.)
1993.
1994.
1995.
1996.
1997.
1998.
1999.
2000.
2001.
4,6
4,6
4,7
4,5
4,6
4,5
4,6
4,4
4,4
421
NEVEN VIDAKOVIÆ: Application of the Mundell-Fleming on Small Open Economy
EKONOMIJA / ECONOMICS, 11 (3) str. 392 - 423 (2005)
www.rifin.com
Exports (in % of GDP)
1993.
1994.
1995.
1996.
1997.
1998.
1999.
2000.
2001.
56,8
49,8
37,1
40,1
39,9
39,5
40,8*
47,0*
49,3*
Imports (in % of GDP)
1993.
1994.
1995.
1996.
1997.
1998.
1999.
2000.
2001.
52,9
47,4
48,7
49,7
56,6
48,7
49,2*
52,1*
54,7*
Current account (in % of GDP)
1993.
1994.
1995.
1996.
1997.
1998.
1999.
2000.
2001.
5,8
4,9
-7,5
-4,8
-12,5
-6,7
-7,0*
-2,4*
-3,2*
Foreign debt (in mil. USD, at the end of the period)
1993.
1994.
1995.
1996.
1997.
1998.
1999.
2000.
2001.
2.638
3.020
3.809
5.308
7.452
9.586
9.872
11.002
11.216*
Foreign debt (in % of GDP)
1993.
1994.
1995.
1996.
1997.
1998.
1999.
2000.
2001.
24,2
20,7
20,2
26,7
37,1
44,3
49,6*
59,7*
57,4*
Debt repayment (in % of exports)
1993.
1994.
1995.
1996.
1997.
1998.
1999.
2000.
2001.
9,9
9,0
10,1
9,0
9,9
12,5
20,7*
23,0*
22,6*
Foreign reserve of the Croatian National Bank (in mil. USD, at the end of the period)
1993.
1994.
1995.
1996.
1997.
1998.
1999.
2000.
2001.
616
1.405
1.895
2.314
2.539
2.816
3.025
3.525
4.704
422
NEVEN VIDAKOVIÆ: Application of the Mundell-Fleming on Small Open Economy
EKONOMIJA / ECONOMICS, 11 (3) str. 392 - 423 (2005)
www.rifin.com
Average exchange rate (HRK : 1USD)
1993.
1994.
1995.
1996.
1997.
1998.
1999.
2000.
2001.
3,5774
5,9953
5,2300
5,4338
6,1571
6,3623
7,1124
8,2768
8,3391
423
NEVEN VIDAKOVIÆ: Application of the Mundell-Fleming on Small Open Economy
EKONOMIJA / ECONOMICS, 11 (3) str. 392 - 423 (2005)
www.rifin.com
1968>1964>
Dostları ilə paylaş: |