The clockspeed dilemma
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- Bu səhifədəki naviqasiya:
- A trillion‑mile surge
- One thing is for sure.
- Small changes in the travel preferences by different age groups results in large changes in total personal miles traveled.
- Forecasted PMT based on population growth Forecasted PMT based on demographic shifts
- 1995–2050 U.S. PERSONAL MILES TRAVELED Source: U.S. BTS data, NHTS data, U.S. Census data, KPMG Analysis Personal Miles Traveled (PMT)
- Large increases in personal miles traveled can ripple into a trillion more vehicle miles traveled.
- 1950–2050 U.S. VEHICLE MILES TRAVELED
A trillion‑mile surge These changes in consumer behavior seem modest, but small changes in personal travel choices can have a big impact in the future… and personal miles traveled (PMT) will soar! As we reported, our focus groups indicate that the oldest and youngest age groups have an increased interest in mobility-on-demand services. Based on current consumer perceptions, we would have expected only small effects from their increasing use of mobility options. Our modeling tells us something far more exciting. It turns out that these small changes among the oldest and youngest demographic groups will likely produce large increases in personal miles traveled (PMT) by 2050: approximately 500 billion more PMT annually. Once we factor in population growth, that increase in personal miles soars to nearly one trillion additional miles per year. When we first calculated these figures, we were astonished. Then we looked at our assumptions and realized that the number is likely to be far larger. Our figures reflect only the United States, but the increasing demand for mobility options will be global. Japan’s more aged population will produce even greater need for mobility services for its seniors. China’s population, aging as a result of the one-child policy, represents a mind-boggling demand for mobility services only 20 years later than the United States. The increase in personal miles traveled may seem startling, but think of it this way: 10 years ago, how many of us would have predicted that most 10-year-olds would be walking around with smartphones? We grossly underestimated that trend. If we don’t watch out, we’ll grossly underestimate the power of these changes in consumer behavior around mobility options. One thing is for sure. Those additional personal miles traveled offer a golden opportunity for the auto industry. They represent an additional trillion miles of new mobility options and the potential for new business models to satisfy them. This then increases the pressure for powerful, strategic innovations to satisfy customer demand.
19 95 20 00 20 05 20 10 20 15 20 20 20 25 20 30 20 35 20 40 20 45 20 50 4.5
4.0 5.5
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3.5 Tr ill io ns o f m ile s Year
Forecasted PMT based on population growth Forecasted PMT based on demographic shifts 0.5%
0.8% CAGR
2014 – 2050 Historical Forecasted Note: (a) Discounted 25% from U.S. BTS total VMT for 1995, 2001, 2009, 2014 (assumed to be commercial miles), (b) Multiplied by NHTS occupancy rates applied 2009 rate to 2014 numbers.
16 © 2015 KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. Printed in the U.S.A. The KPMG name, logo and “cutting through complexity” are registered trademarks or trademarks of KPMG International. NDPPS 404853 Large increases in personal miles traveled can ripple into a trillion more vehicle miles traveled. 5.0
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6.0 0 1.0 2.0 3.0
Trillions of miles Year
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2010 2015
2020 2025
2030 2035
2040 2045
2050 AVO 0.95
1.2 1.67
2.0 Note: (a) Discounted 25% from U.S. BTS total VMT for 1995, 2001, 2009, 2014 (assumed to be commercial miles), (b) Multiplied by NHTS occupancy rates applied 2009 rate to 2014 numbers).
Historical Forecasted Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) Forecasted VMT, < 1: More cars on the road than people Forecasted VMT, = 2: Carpooling and ride-sharing takes off Forecasted VMT, = 1.2: Car can drive your parents and take the kids to practice
But we didn’t stop there because as it turns out, large increases in personal miles traveled can ripple into even larger fluctuations in vehicle miles traveled (VMT). As younger and older age groups are making small changes in their mobility decisions, the choices they make affect the number of average occupants in each vehicle. At current occupancy rates, if the status quo were maintained then we’d see an over-trillion-mile surge in VMT. But, if those occupancy rates were to change—for example, if more younger or older age groups started to select new self-driving options—then we could see twice as much demand. And if we moved into a scenario where there are more people than cars on the road and occupancy rates fell below one person per car—for example, many self-driving cars without passengers—then the increase could be as large as three to four trillion additional miles. That is a staggering number, but one that is not outside the realm of possibility by 2050. While not all of those miles necessarily translate into additional cars on the road, it does have the potential to change trip frequency, vehicle utilization, and ownership models. Furthermore, those increases will likely have a profound but unknown impact on vehicle sales, car ownership models, energy demand, and infrastructure. So much so that we believe that differences in the desired mobility experience may drive new tailored missions with enough underlying demand to influence the car sales down the road to meet those needs. The clockspeed dilemma 17 © 2015 KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. Printed in the U.S.A. The KPMG name, logo and “cutting through complexity” are registered trademarks or trademarks of KPMG International. NDPPS 404853 Yüklə 250,98 Kb. Dostları ilə paylaş:
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