Port of Kalama Comprehensive Plan
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- Table 9 – Employment Forecast by Sector SW Washington WDA Cowlitz County Sector 2014
- Forecast of Building Space
- Table 10 – Forecast of Demand Building Space in Cowlitz County 2014-2019 Square Feet 2014-2019 Annual
- High Forecast
Port of Kalama Comprehensive Plan June 1, 2015
Page 38
sectors of the economy are expected to grow at different rates, ranging from an average of 0.0 percent per year for Agriculture and Mining to a high of 8.8 percent for the Management sector. Most sectors are expected to grow at between 1.5 percent and 2.5 percent annually during this time period (2014 to 2019). Cowlitz County accounted for approximately 21 percent of the Southwest Washington WDA employment base in 2013, slightly less than in prior years. Cowlitz County accounted for 24 percent of the jobs in the WDA in 2003 and 22 percent in 2003. Applying this share to expected future growth implies an estimated growth of 3,467 new jobs in Cowlitz County, which accounts for 19 percent of the expected growth in the Southwest Washington WDA. Current share by sector is only used to provide an initial estimate of job growth for the county. Development by the Port of Kalama of the Spencer Creek Business Park may help Cowlitz County to grab a larger share. Table 9 – Employment Forecast by Sector
Cowlitz County Sector 2014 2019 New Jobs CAGR 2013 Share of SW WA New Jobs 11 & 21 Ag, Mining (excluded from UGB calc.) 1,000 1,000
- 0.0%
1,153 63%
- 23 Construction 11,878 14,244
2,366 3.7%
2,065 19%
450 31-33 Manufacturing 19,113 20,519
1,407 1.4%
6,188 33%
463 42 Wholesale Trade 7,773 8,473
701 1.7%
1,330 18%
125 44-45 Retail Trade 20,001 21,572
1,571 1.5%
4,291 22%
339 22, 48-49 Transportation, Warehouse & Utilities 5,418 5,757
339 1.2%
1,303 31%
104 51 Information 3,078 3,354
276 1.7%
349 12%
33 52 Finance 5,356 5,718
362 1.3%
819 17%
63 53 Real Estate 2,816 3,040
223 1.5%
390 15%
34 54 Professional Services 16,938 19,651
2,713 3.0%
704 9%
249 55 Management 1,689 2,578
889 8.8%
61 3%
26 61 Education 2,215 2,478
263 2.3%
176 17%
44 62 Health & Social Services 24,419 27,399
2,979 2.3%
4,929 21%
640 71 Arts, Entertain, Rec 2,753 3,117
363 2.5%
444 16%
58 72 Accomm & Food Service 14,030 15,669
1,639 2.2%
2,821 21%
343 81 Other Services 6,879 7,118
239 0.7%
1,855 19%
47 92 Government 30,438 32,839
2,402 1.5%
5,410 19%
450 Total
175,794 194,526
18,732 2.0%
34,288 19%
3,467 Source: SW Washington Ten-Year Industry Employment Projections by Washington Employment Security Department, Labor Market and Economic Analysis Branch; BST Associates allocation of employment to Cowlitz County
A forecast of the demand for building space was developed using employment forecast by industry, and typical floor area ratios by industry. Results of this forecast are provided in Table 10, and detailed information by sector and type of building is provided at the end of this section. Between 2015 and 2019, the demand for additional building space in Cowlitz County is projected to range between 1.3 million square feet (under the low forecast) and 2.3 million feet square feet (under the high forecast). Based on standard floor area ratios, this will require development of 92 to 166 acres over the five year period. The Port of Kalama’s Northwest Innovation Works project accounts for 90 acres on its own. Port of Kalama Comprehensive Plan June 1, 2015
Page 39
On an annual basis, demand for new building space in Cowlitz County is projected to range between 259,000 square feet and 467,000 feet square feet per year, and will require approximately 18 to 33 acres per year. Existing use of building space in Cowlitz County is estimated to be 20 million square feet 6 .
The projected growth amounts to a 6 percent increase over existing usage (under the low forecast) and an 11 percent increase over existing usage (under the high forecast). Table 10 – Forecast of Demand Building Space in Cowlitz County 2014-2019 Square Feet 2014-2019 Annual Building Type 2014-2019 Annual Acres Acres FAR Low Forecast
Office 366,000
73,200 17
3 0.5
Institution 185,000
37,000 13
3 0.33
Flex/Business Park 140,000
28,000 13
3 0.25
General Industrial 216,000
43,200 20
4 0.25
Warehouse 116,000
23,200 11
2 0.25
Retail 273,000
54,600 19
4 0.33
Total 1,296,000 259,200 92
18
Existing 20,748,000
Percent Gain 6%
Office 659,000 131,800
30 6 0.5 Institution 333,000
66,600 23
5 0.33
Flex/Business Park 253,000
50,600 23
5 0.25
General Industrial 388,000
77,600 36
7 0.25
Warehouse 210,000
42,000 19
4 0.25
Retail 492,000
98,400 34
7 0.33
Total 2,335,000 467,000 166
33
Existing 20,748,000
% gain 11%
Source: BST Associates using employment forecasts from Washington State Employment Security Department; and building space allocations from Portland Metro.
The Kalama area represents approximately eight percent of the current building usage in Cowlitz County. If Kalama retains the existing share of employment, it could expect total estimated development of 98,000 square feet to 187,000 square feet over the five year period (2014-2019), or approximately 19,600 square feet to 37,400 square feet per year. Under these scenarios, full build-out of the proposed 500,000 square feet could take approximately 13 to 25 years. If Kalama’s share were to increase to 15 percent, full build out of the development could occur over seven to 13 years. Development of the Business Park may provide an opportunity for both Kalama and Cowlitz County to increase their shares of the regional market. The site’s freeway access and visibility will likely make it attractive for potential tenants. In addition, the Port has the ability to design the development to the target market(s).
6 Source: Dun and Bradstreet Yüklə 0,98 Mb. Dostları ilə paylaş:
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