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Japan

US presence in Japan is key to preventing Chinese hostility

Pollmann 15 (Mina Pollmann, editorial assistant at The Diplomat and a student in the Walsh School of Foreign Service class of 2015 majoring in International Politics with a concentration in Foreign Policy. 4/28/15 “Japan, US Talk Okinawa, South China Sea at Ministers’ Meeting” in The Diplomat, accessed 7/29/15 from http://thediplomat.com/2015/04/japan-us-talk-okinawa-south-china-sea-at-ministers-meeting/ LC)

At the joint press conference, Kerry promised the United States would defend Japanese territory, including the Senkaku Islands. President Barack Obama personally already made that promise when he visited Tokyo a year ago, when he explicitly said that the Senkakus are covered by the U.S.-Japan security treaty because they are administered by Japan. Still, such repeated expressions of commitment are reassuring to Japan, which is increasingly alarmed by Chinese bellicosity in the East China Sea.¶ In addition, both sides agreed that Japan and the United States are both interested in and concerned by the problems in the South China Sea because it is an important issue for the region’s peace and stability. Cooperating in the South China Sea is one issue area where Japan can do more to become a more equal partner with the United States within the alliance framework.¶ The emphasis of the alliance’s role in preventing unsettled maritime borders in East Asia from erupting into a major conflict is aptly summarized by the Nikkei Asian Review: “Making China think twice about projecting sea power forms an unstated aim of the first overhaul of Japan-U.S. defense cooperation in 18 years.”

US presence in Japan directly related to South China Sea adventurism

Whelden 15

Craig, MARFORPAC executive director, as quoted by Dennis Chan, reporter, Saipan Tribune, May 5, http://www.saipantribune.com/index.php/nmi-has-role-in-us-forward-presence/

“The South China Sea is being contested, if not daily, certainly weekly,” he said. “All these contests of will in the South China Sea—between them [the Chinese], the Filipinos, the Japanese, and other countries are putting the area at some risk. …Having a forward presence…demonstrates the will of the United States to be here for our friends, our allies,” he said.

Okinawa

Presence in Okinawa is key to deter North Korea nuclear strikes

Roos 10

(John V, American Ambassador to Japan, 1/29/10 “The Enduring Importance of our Security Alliance” Accessed 7/29/15 from http://japan2.usembassy.gov/e/p/tp-20100129-71.html LC)

The current mix of U.S. forces in Japan is based on our assessment of the military capabilities we need to achieve this goal of stability and deterrence in this crucial part of the world.¶ The U.S. Air Force, for example, deploys top line aircraft for air superiority, counterstrike, and intelligence collection. The presence of our naval forces in Yokosuka and Sasebo would enable us to react in a matter of days rather than weeks to any situation that may arise. Our naval forces also work on a daily basis with their Japanese counterparts to track the growing foreign submarine presence in the waters around Japan. Our Army would provide logistical support in the event of a conflict in this area, as well as integrating with the Navy, Air Force, and Japanese Self Defense Forces to provide ballistic missile defense for Japan.¶ The Marine Corps presence in Okinawa, which I am sure you have all been hearing about, is perhaps the least understood by the general public, but in reality is among the most critical of the forces we deploy in both peacetime and in the unlikely event of conflict. So let me be a little more detailed here and a little technical, because I think it is important for all of us to understand. The III [third] Marine Expeditionary Force in Okinawa brings together the core capabilities of all of our other services into a rapidly deployable self-contained fighting force known as the Marine Air-Ground Task Force. The Marines combine air, ground, and logistical forces together, so that in any contingency or emergency there would be no need to wait for complicated logistical and airlift support from other services. The short range helicopters assigned to the Marines in Okinawa would be able to rapidly move our ground combat and support units on Okinawa across the island chain that links Northeast and Southeast Asia to wherever they would be required. For heavier or longer-range operations, the Marines would be supported by our naval fleet in Sasebo, just a few days sailing time away, which could project both Marine ground and air power anywhere in the region. This mobility and forward presence is why the Marines in Okinawa are routinely our primary responder to major natural disasters in Asia, such as the 2004 Asian Tsunami, mudslides in the Philippines, or the recent typhoon in Taiwan. A little known fact is that the Marines, along with other U.S. forces, have led or participated in 12 significant humanitarian assistance/disaster relief missions in the last five years alone, helping to save hundreds of thousands of lives in this region. The Marines in Okinawa would play a similar rapid response role in any armed conflict in the region, arriving first on the scene to secure critical facilities, conduct civilian evacuations, and provide forward land and air strike power.¶ If the Marines were moved entirely off of Japan, their mobility and effectiveness in the region would be impacted, and it could be perceived negatively with regard to the United States' commitment to this region. The next closest ground combat troops available are Army contingents based in Hawaii, and the distance that they would have to travel would delay U.S. responsiveness in regional contingencies.¶ In addition, the ability of the Marines and all our forces in Japan to conduct realistic training exercises ensures not only that they are ready to respond to any situation, but also serves as a visible deterrent. What we do here in Japan is carefully watched throughout the region. Whether it is F-15 air-to-air combat drills off of Kadena Air Force Base or visits by Ballistic Missile Defense-equipped Aegis destroyers to civilian ports on the Sea of Japan, publicly exercising our forces' capabilities to defend Japan makes it less likely that we will ever need to use them in a real conflict.¶ Of course, behind our forward-based forces in Japan is also the full weight of U.S. national military power, both conventional and nuclear. If, God forbid, a conflict were to erupt, our front line units would be stretched to maintain a sustained conflict without reinforcement. That is why we routinely bring military assets such as the F-22s to Japan to ensure that we could deploy the necessary resources as quickly as possible in the event the need ever arises.¶ Let me take a moment to address our nuclear posture. The nuclear deterrent we provide to Japan is obviously important given North Korea's pursuit of nuclear weapons and the existence of two major acknowledged nuclear powers in the region. As you know, President Obama is fully committed to the goal of totally eliminating nuclear weapons, and we must continue to work very hard to achieve that goal. Until we reach that objective, however, preserving an effective nuclear deterrent for ourselves, Japan, and our other allies remains an absolutely unshakable commitment of the United States.¶ Of course, our Alliance could not operate effectively without the shared responsibilities and partnership of Japan. Under the terms of the Mutual Security Treaty, we are required to provide the land, air, and naval forces necessary to defend Japan. In exchange, Japan is responsible for providing bases and areas for U.S. forces to protect Japan and to maintain peace and security in East Asia. This is the basic compact that has served our two nations - and the region - so well over the five decades. The presence of the U.S. personnel in Japan reassures the region of America's commitment to maintaining peace. We could not fulfill this role or our treaty commitments without the bases that Japan provides. At the same time, the U.S. recognizes that it must always seek measures to better structure our basing presence here. In this regard, the Realignment Roadmap Agreement we reached in 2006, which has been the subject of so much discussion, reflected in part a shared realization of the need to re-structure our forces to respond to the changing Japanese demographics over the past several decades. While we must maintain the necessary deterrent capability over the longer term, we must also reduce the footprint of our forces in heavily populated areas.¶ Nowhere is this truer than in Okinawa. Due to its strategic location, Okinawa suffered severely during the war. Since that time and for the same strategic reasons, it has hosted a much larger share of U.S. bases than the other parts of Japan. Unfortunately, given trends in the security environment, Okinawa is becoming not less but more important for the defense of Japan and maintenance of peace in the region. This is why, for example, the Japan Self-Defense Forces are reorienting their posture to focus on the Ryukyu Islands chain.

South Korea withdrawal

China wants US military presence on the Korean peninsula and fears withdrawal because of the Japanese response

Stratfor 2K

International News and analysis consulting firm, July 28, http://www.military.com/Content/MoreContent?file=SL27july

Beijing will not accept a large force that reinforces Washington's hegemonic power in Asia, but it wants the force large enough to guarantee stability and a status quo of the regional power balance. Tokyo will not accept a force so small that it would leave Japan as the frontline of U.S. defense in Asia.

Northeast Asia

US needs to devote more military to Asia to prevent China takeover

Rogin 4/2/15

(Josh, Bloomberg View columnist, previously worked for the Daily Beast, Newsweek, Foreign Policy magazine, the Washington Post, Congressional Quarterly and Asahi Shimbun 4/2/15 “U.S. Misses Real Threat of China’s Fake Islands” Accessed 7/30/15 http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-04-02/u-s-misses-real-threat-of-china-s-fake-islands LC)

The Barack Obama administration has been very busy dealing with nuclear negotiations with Iran, a war against the Islamic State, a new conflict in Yemen and the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan. Yet the understandable focus on these other crises has obscured China's efforts to speed up its militarization of the South China Sea. Now, Chinese progress has reached the point that senior Pentagon officials and Congressional leaders are demanding the administration do something about it.¶ There is no shortage of evidence of China’s rapid buildup of infrastructure and armaments in disputed territory far from its physical borders. Satellite photos released last month show that in the past year, China has built several entirely new islands in disputed waters using land-reclamation technology, and then constructed military-friendly facilities on them. In the Spratly Islands, new Chinese land masses have been equipped with helipads and anti-aircraft towers, raising regional concerns that Beijing is using thinly veiled military coercion to establish control in an area where six Asian nations have claims.¶ Admiral Harry Harris, commander of U.S. Pacific Fleet, sounded the alarm in a speech in Australia on Wednesday, calling the Chinese project “unprecedented” and saying that the construction is part of a larger campaign of provocative actions against smaller Asian states.¶ "China is creating a 'Great Wall of Sand' with dredges and bulldozers over the course of months,” he warned, adding that it raised "serious questions about Chinese intentions."¶ For example, satellite photos taken by Airbus Defence and Space and published by Jane's in February, show that over the past year China has built an 800,000-square-foot island on top of Hughes Reef in the Spratly Islands, where no island existed before. China also began a reclamation and construction project at nearby Gavin’s Reef. Both islands now have helipads and anti-aircraft towers.¶ China has also expanded its already created islands on the Spratlys' Johnson South Reef, Cuarteron Reef, Gaven Reef and Fiery Cross Reef -- the last of which can accommodate an airstrip, according to the U.S. military. Harris said China has created more than 1.5 square miles of “artificial landmass” in the South China Sea. China’s claims are based on what’s known as the nine-dash line, which if implemented would grant China 90 percent of the entire Sea.¶ Top Asia watchers in Congress have been asking the Obama administration to confront China on the issue and devote more attention to the increasingly tense situation in the region. In the late hours of the debate over the Senate budget last weekend, three senators added two amendments aimed at pushing the Obama administration to reinvigorate its so-called Pivot to Asia.¶ The first of those amendments, sponsored by Senate Foreign Relations Committee members Robert Menendez, Cory Gardner and Ben Cardin, calls on the administration to develop and make public a comprehensive strategy to ensure freedom of navigation in the Pacific. It would also allow Congress to fund more training and exercises by the U.S. military and its Asian partners.¶ A second amendment, authored by Gardner, the new chairman of the Asia subcommittee of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, calls for an independent agency such as the Government Accountability Office to review what the administration is actually spending on the Asia pivot and to make recommendations on how it might be better managed.¶ “It’s important that the American people have a full accounting of the resources that have been devoted to this important policy and whether they have been prioritized effectively,” Gardner told me in a statement.¶ These pieces of legislation are the latest effort by Congress to find out exactly what the administration is doing to counter China’s moves. On March 19, all four leaders of the Senate Foreign Relations and Armed Services Committees wrote a letter to Secretary of State John Kerry and Defense Secretary Ashton Carter calling on the administration to wake up to the graveness of the situation in the South China Sea. “Without a comprehensive strategy for addressing the PRC’s broader policy and conduct," the senators wrote, "longstanding interests of the United States, as well as our allies and partners, stand at considerable risk."¶ The letter points out that $5 trillion in global trade transits through the South China Sea each year. They assert that China stands in violation of 2002 agreement it signed with the ASEAN countries in which all parties pledged self-restraint and avoid actions that could complicate the situation or escalate tensions.¶ Bob Corker, chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, told me that the Chinese are taking advantage of the Obama administration’s focus on the Middle East: “China understands that where this administration is, it’s a place where they can in fact move ahead in the world.” ¶ Asked about the congressional letter, State Department spokesman Jeff Radke insisted that the U.S. is increasing its coordination with countries affected by China’s moves and confronting the Chinese leadership privately. “We have consistently and frequently raised with China our concerns over its large-scale land reclamation, which undermines peace and stability in the South China Sea, and more broadly in the Asia Pacific region,” he said.¶ But James Clapper, the director of national intelligence, testified to Congress last month that the Chinese don’t seem to be getting the message. He called their actions “aggressive” and said Chinese claims in the South China Sea are “exorbitant.” ¶ “Although China is looking for stable ties with the United States, it’s more willing to accept bilateral and regional tensions in pursuit of its interests, particularly on maritime sovereignty issues,” Clapper said.¶ The Beijing government has stated clearly that it believes its expansion in the South China Sea is both legal and non-threatening, refusing to address the region’s concerns in any substantive way. It complained loudly when the U.S. and India took the relatively innocuous step of issuing a joint statement referring to their desire to address the issue.¶ No matter the state of the Middle East and Eastern Europe, the Obama administration's lack of response to China’s maritime aggression is worrisome. China is testing how far it can push the status quo before Washington does something. The Pentagon and Congress are clearly telling Obama that the response needs to come before China’s military takeover of the South China Sea is complete.

American military presence in Northeast Asia key to regional stability

Hagel 14

(Chuck Hagel, Secretary of Defense, 5/31/14 “The United States’ Contribution to Regional Stability: Chuck Hagel” accessed 7/31/15 from https://www.iiss.org/en/events/ shangri%20la%20dialogue/archive/2014-c20c/plenary-1-d1ba/chuck-hagel-a9cb LC)

As America strengthens its ties across the Asia-Pacific, we also welcome the region’s democratic development. We welcome democratic development because democracies are America’s closest friends, and because democracies are much more likely to live with their neighbors in peace.¶ The United States will continue to strongly support our friends who are pursuing democratic development – in Myanmar and elsewhere around the region. We will also respond when nations retreat from democracy, as in Thailand. We urge the Royal Thai Armed Forces to release those who have been detained, end restrictions on free expression, and move immediately to restore power to the people of Thailand, through free and fair elections. Until that happens, as U.S. law requires, the Department of Defense is suspending and reconsidering U.S. military assistance and engagements with Bangkok.¶ The Asia-Pacific’s shifting security landscape makes America’s partnerships and alliances indispensable as anchors for regional stability. As we work to build a cooperative regional architecture, we are also modernizing our alliances, helping allies and partners develop new and advanced capabilities, and encouraging them to work more closely together.¶ In Southeast Asia, that means continuing to help nations build their humanitarian and disaster relief capabilities, and upgrade their militaries. One important example is our first-ever sale of Apache helicopters to Indonesia, which I announced during my visit to Jakarta last year. This sale will help the Indonesian Army defend its borders, conduct counter-piracy operations, and control the free flow of shipping through the Straits of Malacca. We are also providing robust assistance to the Philippines’ armed forces, to strengthen their maritime and aviation capabilities.¶ In Northeast Asia, our capacity-building efforts include strengthening Allies’ capabilities with sophisticated aircraft and ballistic missile defense – especially to deter and defend against provocation by Pyongyang.¶ Two months ago, we signed an agreement with the Republic of Korea. We signed that agreement for its purchase of Global Hawk, which will dramatically enhance its intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance capabilities. South Korea also intends to acquire the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter – which means that America and its most capable allies in this region, including Australia and Japan, will soon be operating the world’s most advanced, fifth-generation tactical aircraft.¶ We are also making significant progress in building a robust regional missile defense system. Last month in Tokyo, I announced that the United States will deploy two additional ballistic missile defense ships to Japan – a step that builds on the construction of a second missile defense radar site in Japan, and the expansion of America’s ground-based interceptors in the continental United States, which I reviewed this week in Alaska during my trip to Singapore.¶ Modernizing our alliances also means strengthening the ties between America’s allies, enhancing their joint capabilities – such as missile defense – and encouraging them to become security providers themselves. Yesterday, I held a trilateral meeting with my counterparts from Australia and Japan, and today I will host another trilateral meeting with my counterparts from Korea and Japan.¶ The enhanced cooperation America is pursuing with these close allies comes at a time when each of them is choosing to expand their roles in providing security around the Asia-Pacific region, including in Southeast Asia. Seven decades after World War II, the United States welcomes this development. We support South Korea’s more active participation in maritime security, peacekeeping, and stabilization operations. We also support Japan’s new efforts – as Prime Minister Abe described very well last night – to reorient its Collective Self Defense posture toward actively helping build a peaceful and resilient regional order.¶ To complement these efforts, the United States and Japan have begun revising our defense guidelines for our first time in more than two decades. We will ensure that our alliance evolves to reflect the shifting security environment, and the growing capabilities of Japan’s Self-Defense Forces.