Terrorism and Counter-Terrorism : Regional Perspective May 24, 2006

Terrorism and Counter-Terrorism : Regional Perspective

• May 24, 2006

• Regional Anatomy I

• Ken JIMBO

Regionalism in Asia-Pacific / East Asia Political & Security Dimension

Review 1) New Dynamics of Security in East Asia (2001-Present)

• Strategic Circumstances

• US Strategy and Engagement in East Asia

• Japan-US Alliance / Korea-US Alliance Renovated

• Cooperative Security: Multi-Layered Cooperation

• Ad-hoc Functional Mechanisms

Review 2) New Dynamics of Security in East Asia

Terrorism as a National Security Threat

• September 11, 2001

• World Trade Center Bldg.（NYC）
• Department of Defense (Washington DC)

• More than 3000 had died

• Definition of “War”
• “More than 1000 dead in a conbat”
• Rhetric of “War against Terror”

The New Age of Terrorism

• New Trends of Terrorism

• Terrorism has become bloodier.
• Terrorist have developed new financial resources, so that they are less dependent on state sponsors.
• Terrorists have evolved new model of organization.
• Terrorists can now wage global campaigns.
• Terrorists have effectively exploited new communications technologies.
• Some terrorists have moved beyond tactics to strategy, although none of them have achieved their stated long range goals.
• ― Brian Jenkins, “The New Age of Terrorism” (RAND, 2006)

Terrorism has become bloodier

• Death　　　 Event　　　 　　　　　　　　 Suspect

• 3000+ NYC/Washington DC (2001) Al-Qaeda

• 477 Iran Avadan Arson (1979) Anti-Govt Group

• 412 Massacre in Algeria (1997) GIA

• 270 Pan-Am 103 Bombing (1988) Libya

• 241 Beirut US Marine Corp (1983) Islamic Front

• 223 Kenya / Tanzania (1998) Al-Qaeda

• 168 Oklahoma Bldg (1995) Mcbay&Nichols

• 115 Korean Air Bombing (1987) North Korea

• Casualty

• 5500 Aum Salin Gas Attack (1995) Aum-Shinrikyo

• 4000 Kenya / Tanzania (1998) Al-Qaeda

Spatial Analysis of 9-11 Attack

Terrorist Organizations (Al-Qaeda)

Patterns of Terrorism US Perspective

Typology of International Terrorism

• Territory-oriented Terrorism

• Europe / Middle East
• Palestine (PLA) / Northern Ireland / Bask / Kosovo
• Asia
• Sri Lanka / Kashmir / Ache / MILF

• Ideal-oriented Terrorism

• Political Terrorism
• Far Left / Far Right / Anarchist
• Religious Terrorism
• Islamic Fundamentalist / Christian Fundamentalist
• Religious Cults
• Social Issue-oriented Terrorism
• Anti-abortion / Animal Protection / Environmental Preservation
• Personal Delusion Terrorism
• Unabomber

Categorization of Counter-Terrorism

US Strategy on Anti-/Counter- Terrorism(1) “Patterns of Global Terrorism” (-2003)

• Patterns of Global Terrorism

• Officially recognizing more than 30 terrorist organizations

• Four Policy Principles on Counter Terrorism

• make no concessions to terrorists and strike no deals
• bring terrorists to justice to their crimes
• isolate and apply pressure on states that sponsor terrorism to force them to change their behavior
• Bolster the counterterrorist capabilities of those countries that work with the US and require assistance

• ―US State Department ”Patterns of Global Terrorism” (2003)

US Strategy on Anti-/Counter- Terrorism (2) “US Strategy for Combating Terrorism” (2003)

Terrorist Organizations in Asia (1) cf “Patterns of Global Terrorism” (2003)

• Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF)-Mindanao

• Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF)-Mindanao

• Kumplan Mujahideen Malaysia (KMM)-Malaysia

• Pattani United Liberation Organization (PULO) Yousif Longpi-Indonesia

• Jemaah Islamiah (JI) - Riduan Isamuddin:

• Ties to Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, Zacarias Moussaoui, Khalid al-Mihdar, Nawaf al-Hazmi-2000 Al Qaeda Summit in Kuala Lumpur

• Abu-Sayyaf Group (ASG) - Philippines

• Tamil Tigers - Phuket, Thailand

• Sri Lankan Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE)

• These organizations are all related through their shared ideology of radical Islamic nationalism revolving around the preservation of Islamic culture in response to real and perceived aggression.

Islamic Jihad Group -Throughout Central Asia & South Asia

• Islamic Jihad Group -Throughout Central Asia & South Asia

• Japanese Red Army - Japan

• East Turkistan Islamic Movement (ETIM) - Western Xinjiang province/China

• Cambodian Freedom Fighters - Cambodia & U.S.

• Alex Boncayao Brigade (ABB) - Philippines

• Communist Party of Philippines / New People’s Army

• AUM Shinrikyo (AUM) - Japan & Russia

• Abu Nidal Organization (ANO)-Asia, Middle East and Europe

Southeast Asia as Terrorist Bed

• Areas with Major Islamic Population

• Middle East 19.5% (238,000,000)
• Indonesia 17% (200,000,000)
• South Asia 25% (300,000,000)
• Africa 20% (240,000,000)
• Turkey 10% (125,000,000)

• Characteristic of Southeast Asia’s Extremists

• Muslim Youth Movement
• Diffused Centralized Command & Control
• External Support and Recruitment
• Early Stages of Organizational Development
• Gaining Momentum in Technics and Efficiency (eg Bali Bombing)

Regional Cooperation in Asia on Combating Terrorism

• APEC

• APEC Action Plan for Combating the Financing of Terrorism (2002)
• APEC Counter Terrorism Action Plans (2003)
• Counter-Terrorism Task Force (2003)
• Fund for Regional Trade and Security Initiative (2004)

• ARF

• Statement on Measures Against Terrorist Financing (2002)
• Statement on Cooperative counter-terrorist action on border security (2003)
• Statement Strengthening Transport Security Against International Terrorism (2004)
• Statement on Sharing and Intelligence Exchange and Document Integrity and Security in Enhancing Cooperation to Combat Terrorism and Other Transnational Crimes(2005)

• ASEAN+3

• Joint Statement (2001-2005)

Bilateral and Ad-hoc Cooperation on Combating Terrorism

• Regional Groupings

• Bali Process
• Bali Regional Ministerial Meeting on Counter-Terrorism (2004)
• Legal Issue Working Group
• Southeast Asia Center for Counter-Terrorism
• Malaysia

• Bilateral Cooperation

• Japan-(ROK, Australia, Russia, EU)
• Among ASEAN Member States
• Australia (Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand)

• Ad-hoc (functional) Cooperation

• Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI): Japan, Australia, Singapore
• Container Security Initiative (CSI) : Japan, China, Singapore, Malaysia
• Taiwan

Globalism / Regionalism / Bilateralism

• Economic Sphere Security Sphere

• Global Framework 　 GATT / IMF UN / Multinational

• Mega-Regionalism APEC ARF / OSCE

• Regionalism EU / ASEAN +3 EU / ASEAN

• Coalition Multilateral FTAs Anti-Terrorism

• Bilateralism Bilateral FTAs Bilateral Alliance