8Appendix A Details of methodology and measurement Methods of estimation
PISA 2009, which is the first wave of LSAY09, uses plausible value methodologies to measure student achievement. It also uses an incomplete balanced matrix design, which means that students answer a sample of, rather than all, test questions. This is why descriptive estimates of student achievement in science in this paper are based on five plausible values for each student and computed with the OECD-recommended analytical techniques, including balanced-repeated replicate (BRR) weights with Fay adjustments (OECD 2009). All analyses have been performed on the data in which missing values had been replaced by the estimates from a multiple chained imputation procedure available in Stata 12 (Royston 2004). The imputation model included, as predictors, all the variables from the analyses in this paper, except for the dependent variables.
Because of the use of imputations and plausible values (Mislevy et al. 1992), all estimates in the multivariate analyses have been obtained using multiple imputation methodology. This involves fitting five sets of models, each with one plausible value, and then combining these values using the Rubin rule (Little & Rubin 1987), as per OECD recommendations (OECD 2007b). For the estimations of multilevel models, MPlus version 6 was used because of its ability to handle complex weights in hierarchical estimations.
The PISA 2009 sample is representative of 15-year-olds, not of students in any particular grade. All analyses of career plans in this paper have been weighted back to the original PISA population, while all analyses of subject choices have been weighted to such subpopulation of PISA students as remained after 1) those who failed to participate in the survey’s subsequent waves and 2) who changed schools after Wave 1, or 3) who did not answer the question about remaining in the original PISA school, were excluded from the analysis. Only student-level weights were used, as per OECD recommendations (OECD 2012b), as PISA data have been collected with a sampling mechanism that is invariant across sample clusters, so school-level weights are not necessary (Asparouhov 2004).
Multivariate analyses in this paper are two-level hierarchical logit models with school-level and student-level covariates (OECD 2012b; Raudenbush & Bryk 2002). Logit models are suitable for predictions regarding binary variables. Here dependent variables denote the chances of studying at least one life science subject in Year 11 and at least one physical science subject in Year 11 as well as expectations of a career related to life science and expectations of a career related to hard science. The two-level logit model has the following functional form:
where Yij denotes the dependent variable for an observation for student i in school j, is the average intercept across schools. X is a vector of student-level explanatory variables and β is a vector of regression coefficients corresponding to variables from vector X. Z is a vector of school-level explanatory variables and γ is a vector of regression coefficients corresponding to variables from vector Z. The error component u0j varies between schools. In multilevel logit models, the individual error term, denoted by eij, is omitted due to identification problems (Raudenbush & Bryk 2002).
Measurement
Student characteristics
Dummy (zero-one) variables
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Female: coded 1 for females and 0 for males
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English spoken at home: coded 1 for students who spoke English at home and 0 for everyone else
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Australian-born to Australian parents: coded 1 for students who were born in Australia and whose both parents were Australian-born.
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Foreign-born student: coded 1 for students born overseas with both parents also born overseas
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Parent foreign-born: coded 1 for students born in Australia with at least one parent born overseas
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NSW, ACT, Victoria, Queensland, South Australia, Western Australia, Tasmania, Northern Territory
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Metropolitan area, provincial town, remote location
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Aboriginal student
Other variables
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Economic and cultural status of family: the PISA variable known as students’ economic, social and cultural status (ESCS). This composite construct comprises the International Socio-Economic Index of Occupational Status (ISEI); the highest level of education of the student’s parents, converted into years of schooling; the PISA index of family wealth; the PISA index of home educational resources; and the PISA index of possessions, including cultural assets such as books of poetry or works of art in the family home (OECD 2007b). This index is standardised to the mean of 0 and the standard deviation of 1 across the OECD countries.
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Academic performance in science: measured by PISA’s five plausible values (OECD 2009; Wu 2005), which indicate ability to use science-related concepts in adult life. Plausible value methodologies, including the use of balanced repeated replication (BRR) weights with Fay’s adjustment (OECD 2007b, p.55, and Chapter 4), have been used in this paper.
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Minutes per week study science: the number of minutes devoted to studying science each week reported in Wave 1. Divided by 100 to facilitate presentation of coefficients.
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Self-confidence in science skills is a single question indicator of how well the student thought they did in science. Five answer categories range from ‘very well’ to ‘very poorly’.
School characteristics
Dummy (zero-one) variables
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Boys-only school and girls-only school are indicators identifying schools with 0% and 100% of female students
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Government school, independent school, Catholic school
Other variables
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Selective admission to school is a three-category question ‘How often student’s record of academic performance (including placement tests) is considered when students are admitted to your school?’: 0 Never, 0.5 Sometimes, 1 Always.
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9Appendix B Details of coding of occupations and subjects Physical science subjects Life science subjects
6 Chemistry 1 Agricultural science
8 Earth and environmental science 2 Agriculture and horticulture (VET)
9 Earth science 3 Applied science
14 Geology 4 Biological sciences
21 Physical sciences 5 Biology
22 Physics 7 Contemporary issues and science
10 Environmental science
13 Geography
15 Human biological science
17 Life science
18 Marine and aquatic practices (VET)
19 Marine studies
20 Multi-strand science
23 Psychology
25 Science life skills
27 Science 21
28 Scientific studies
29 Senior science
30 Tasmanian natural resources
Note: General science, Integrated science and Other science are not classified as either life or physical science and a small number of students were left out of analysis when this distinction is made.
Physical science occupations ANZSCO (ABS 2006)
Note: these occupations are related to computing, engineering, mathematics or physical sciences. ‘Physical science’ is used as a short label for this entire group of occupations
1350 ICT Managers
1351 ICT Managers
2232 ICT Trainers
2241 Actuaries, mathematicians and statisticians
2300 Design, engineering, science and transport professionals
2310 Air and marine transport professionals
2311 Air transport professionals
2312 Marine transport professionals
2320 Architects, designers, planners and surveyors
2321 Architects and landscape architects
2322 Cartographers and surveyors
2326 Urban and regional planners
2330 Engineering professionals
2331 Chemical and materials engineers
2332 Civil engineering professionals
2333 Electrical engineers
2334 Electronics engineers
2335 Industrial, mechanical and production engineers
2336 Mining engineers
2339 Other engineering professionals
2340 Natural and physical science professionals
2344 Geologists and geophysicists
2349 Other natural and physical science professionals
2600 ICT professionals
2610 Business and systems analysts, and programmers
2611 ICT business and systems analysts
2612 Multimedia specialists and web developers
2613 Software and applications programmers
2620 Database and systems administrators, and ICT security specialists
2621 Database and systems administrators, and ICT security specialists
2630 ICT network and support professionals
2631 Computer network professionals
2632 ICT support and test engineers
2633 Telecommunications engineering professionals
Life science occupations ANZSCO (ABS 2006)
2341 Agricultural and forestry scientists
2343 Environmental scientists
2345 Life scientists
2346 Medical laboratory scientists
2347 Veterinarians
2500 Health professionals
2510 Health diagnostic and promotion professionals
2511 Dieticians
2512 Medical Imaging professionals
2513 Occupational and environmental health professionals
2514 Optometrists and orthoptists
2515 Pharmacists
2519 Other health diagnostic and promotion professionals
2520 Health therapy professionals
2521 Chiropractors and osteopaths
2522 Complementary health therapists
2523 Dental practitioners
2524 Occupational therapists
2525 Physiotherapists
2526 Podiatrists
2527 Speech professionals and audiologists
2530 Medical practitioners
2531 Generalist medical practitioners
2532 Anaesthetists
2533 Internal medicine specialists
2534 Psychiatrists
2535 Surgeons
2539 Other medical practitioners
2540 Midwifery and nursing professionals
2541 Midwives
2542 Nurse educators and researchers
2543 Nurse managers
2544 Registered nurses
The coding of occupations has been conceptually informed by the OECD coding framework for PISA 2006 data (Sikora & Pokropek 2011).
Building researcher capacity initiative
This paper is produced as part of NCVER’s building researcher capacity initiative, which is funded under the National Vocational Education and Training Research (NVETR) Program. The NVETR Program is coordinated and managed by NCVER on behalf of the Australian Government and state and territory governments. Funding is provided through the Department of Industry (formerly the Department of Industry, Innovation, Climate Change, Science, Research and Tertiary Education).
The aims of the building researcher capacity initiative are to attract experienced researchers from outside the sector, encourage early career researchers and support people in the sector to undertake research.
The building researcher capacity initiative includes the following programs: NCVER fellowships, PhD top-up scholarships, postgraduate research papers and community of practice scholarships for VET practitioners. These grants are awarded to individuals through a selection process and are subject to NCVER’s quality assurance process, including peer review.
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