Mgr. Zinaida Shevchuk

Nagorno-Karabakh conflict

• On 12 January 1989 - ‘special government administration’ in Karabakh - direct control from Moscow.
• Sporadic clashes became frequent by the first months of 1991.
• On 2 September 1991 - independent republic of Nagorno Karabakh.
• During Autumn, Azerbaijani forces moved to counter Nagorno Karabakh’s declaration of Independence.
• 1992-1994 full - scale war.

Images of War

• Over 1 million displaced

1994 Cease-Fire

• The cease-fire has not been successful, as the goals of both sides have not been met:
• Armenia occupies 20% of Azeri territory;
• Azerbaijan demands its right to self-determination, the end of the occupation and the return of Karabakh to Azerbaijan;
• perceives Russia as aiding Orthodox Armenia.

Nagorno-Karabakh conflict

• The human sufferings included 25 000-30 000 people dead,
• 250 000-350 000 refugees from Azerbaijan in Armenia, and
• 750 000-1 000 000 refugees and Internally Displaced People (IDPs) from Armenia, Karabakh and occupied Azerbaijani territories in Azerbaijan.

Armenian, Azerbaijani Presidents Agree On Preamble To 'Madrid Principles‚ Sochi 2010.

Sochi 2011

Nagorno-Karabakh conflict

• The possibility of war remains on the agenda

• Azeri military budget from 2004 - 463 million USD to 1 600 million USD in 2010.

Conclusion

• No end to conflict in sight
• Both sides unwilling to make concessions
• “Primordial” claims over territory by both sides
• The unsolved problem of what to do with refugees
• Continued fighting despite cease-fire
• Russia claiming to uphold cease-fire while arming Armenia; U.S. making oil deals with Azerbaijan
• Building of oil pipelines likely to upset Armenia