A model approach to long-term forecasting of electricity supply

A model approach to long-term forecasting of electricity supply
Ph.D F.D.Jo'rayev¹
Sh.N. Mirzayev^1
1Karshi Institute of Engineering – Economics


Abstract
This article examines the scale of problems in the perspective of providing electricity to the population and the importance of an innovative approach to these problems. In the future, the complexity of the requirements for long-term forecasting in the development of forecast parameters of electricity supply creates a sufficiently uncertain system of the process. Effective research of this process requires the application of today's modern scientific achievements in modeling processes, in particular, modern modeling equipment, and consistent implementation of the optimal testing range of the obtained results. The problem and results of the research are aimed at clarifying aspects of effective use of modern equipment for successful implementation of long-term forecasting in conditions of uncertainty.
Keywords: electricity supply, long-term forecasting, model, modeling, software, artificial intelligence, economic growth
Annotatsiya
Ushbu maqolada aholini elektr energetikasi bilan ta’minlash istiqbolidagi muammolar ko‘lami va mazkur muammolarga innovatsion yondoshuvning ahamiyati tadqiq etilgan. Istiqbolda elektr ta’minotini prognoz parametrlarini ishlab chiqishda uzoq muddatli prognozlashtirishga qo‘yiladigan talablar murakkabligi, jarayonning yetarlicha noaniq tizimini vujudga keltiradi. Bu jarayonni samarali tadqiq etish esa modellashtirish jarayonlarida bugungi zamonaviy ilm-fan yutuqlaridan, xususan, zamonaviy modellashtirish apparatlarini tadbiq etishni hamda erishilgan natijalarni optimal sinash diapazonini izchil amalga oshirishni talab etadi. Tadqiqot muammosi va natijalari noaniqlik sharoitida uzoq muddatli prognozlashtirishni muvaffaqiyatli amalga oshirishning zamonaviy apparatlaridan samarali foydalanish jihatlariga oydinlik kiritishga qaratilgan.