ENERGY FACTOR IN SINO-
RUSSIAN RELATIONS
(Presentation by Dr.Yuri Shafranik,
Chairman of the Board of the Union
of Oil and Gas Producers of Russia)
ENERGY FACTOR IN SINO-RUSSIAN
RELATIONS
•
Ideological affinity that was the basis of
Sino-Soviet relations since 1949 up to the
beginning of the 1990-s does not exist any
more.
•
Now hardly anyone would dispute that the
ideological factor is completely gone from the
relationship between the two major powers of
Eurasia.
ENERGY FACTOR IN SINO-RUSSIAN
RELATIONS
•
Main drivers in bilateral relations now are interests of economic
development and energy security.
•
China this year overtook the U.S. by the level of dependence on foreign oil
supplies. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology of China
published data showing that from January to May the country's
dependence on foreign supplies of crude oil reached 55.2% leaving the
U.S. behind by this indicator.
•
How to ensure the energy security of the PRC? Professor of the Institute of
Trade and Industrial Management of Chinese Petroleum University Liu
Itszyun believes it is necessary to adhere to the long-term policy of
imports diversification: to promote onshore strategic channels for import
of energy and push oil enterprises to actively participate in investment
projects in the energy sector of foreign countries.
•
The interests of energy security are pushing China to diversify its energy
imports. And in recent years, we see how China has been implementing a
strategy of diversification by type of resource as well as by geographic
location of energy resources.
ENERGY FACTOR IN SINO-RUSSIAN
RELATIONS
•
China needs and will need for the next 20-25 years more
energy to satisfy its constantly growing needs. Russia is its
neighbor and has a rather big export potential.
•
Until now, the main export destination of these resources was
Europe. In 2011, the volumes of Russian oil and gas in this
area for the first time in recent years declined. At the
moment, there is no reason to expect both an increase in
export volumes and export prices for oil and gas.
•
At the same time, to the East of us there is a clear interest in
our energy resources and hydrocarbon processing products in
countries whose needs will steadily increase over the next 20
years. Hence, the need to build infrastructure to supply these
countries not only with energy but also with products of deep
processing of hydrocarbons.
ENERGY FACTOR IN SINO-RUSSIAN
RELATIONS
•
One of our major domestic problems right now is the
development of Eastern Siberia and the Far East ‒ a
vast and rich with natural resources region, whose
population is continuously declining for the last 20
years.
•
Region's natural resources ‒ water, forests, energy,
raw materials, agricultural, recreational ‒ are huge
and varied, but the use is still very inadequate. At the
same time, only two Chinese provinces near the
border with Russia are home to 141 million Chinese.
And throughout the Russian Far East and Eastern
Siberia ‒ only 6 million Russians live.
Territory
-
60,5
Water resources -
70
Hydropower potential
-
75,7
Geological resources:
coal -
84
oil - 40-50
Population
-
11,3
Мастепанов А.М. 40
Share of the East of Russia in the Countries Characteristics, %%
Share of the East of Russia in the Countries Characteristics, %%
Accumulated
production
A+B+C
1
C
2
C
3
+D
Initial summarized
resources
14,6
6,6
12,0
5,4
1,2
0,3
1,3
0,9
0,1
2,7
5,6
Siberian FD’s onshore
The Far Eastern
FD onshore
Восточно
-
Сибирское
и
Лаптевых
моря
Чукотское
и
Берингово
моря
Охотское
и
Японские
моря
37,9
31,7
3,6
2,6
0,035
Мастепанов А.М. 41
There are more than
67 Trln cub.
м
of gas:
-on shore – 52,4
- seashelf – 14,9
Share of the East in Russia’s
total resources –
27%
0,07
Initial Gas Resources of Eastern Siberia and the Far East, Trln cub.m
Far Eastern FD
Siberia FD
Ural’s FD
North-Western Federal District
Central FD
Privolzhski FD
Southern and Caucasus FD
2,4
Yamal peninsula with adjoining
aqyatories
East of Russia
Barentz, Kara and Pechora seas’
shelf
Main Gas Producing Regions of Russia in
XXI Century
North of Tyumen’s Region
(YNAО и KMАО)
Astrakhan and Orenburg Regions
Мастепанов А.М. 28
ENERGY FACTOR IN SINO-RUSSIAN
RELATIONS
•
Political leaders of both countries consider development of bilateral
energy cooperation an important task of their governments
•
President Hu Jintao during his meeting with Russian Defense Minister
Sergei Shoigu: new China will continue to cooperate with Russia on key
areas for the implementation of the next 10-year program of its
development…The two sides over the previous 10 years have achieved
"significant progress in cooperation in such fields as energy, science and
technology ...".
•
President Vladimir Putin in June 2012 in "The People's Daily":
•
"... I want to stress the strategic nature of the dialogue between Russia
and China in the energy sector. Our joint projects seriously change the
entire configuration of the global energy market. For China, it makes more
reliable, more diversified energy supplies for domestic use. For Russia it
means opening new export routes to the dynamic Asia-Pacific Region.
ENERGY FACTOR IN SINO-RUSSIAN
RELATIONS
•
The turn to the East is a capital-intensive and multi-step process. Right
now the second stage of the ESPO pipeline is being put into operation
(November-December 2012).
•
On October 30, 2012 the Board of Directors of OAO "Gazprom" made a
final investment decision on the development of Chayanda’s oil, gas and
oil-condensate field and construction of gas pipeline system from
Chayanda field to Vladivostok along the existing ESPO-route. Both objects
should be put into operation in 2017, the pipeline design capacity is 61
billion m3 per year. In this volume, in addition to domestic consumption,
13.8 billion m3 per year are forseen for the LNG plant in Vladivostok, with
the subsequent delivery of LNG mainly to Japan, 10 billion m3 per year of
pipeline supplies are going to be delivered to the Republic of Korea
through North Korea and about 30 billion m3 per year are planned for
shipments to China in the area of Blagoveshchensk or Dalnerechensk.
International energy projects in the Eastern regions of Russia
Tugnui
Urgal
Neryungr
i
Elginskoe
Tugurskaia Tidal
Power station
New LNG/CNG/ gas-chemical
plant in Vladivostok
Yakutsk gas
production center
Krasnoyarsk gas
production center
Irkutsk gas
production center
Sakhalin gas
production center
Gas production
centers
functioning
planned
Oil pipeline current
Oil pipeline planned
Gas pipeline planned
Coal production centers
Recommended gas chemical plant
Recommended gas processing plant
New oil production centers
LNG plant
New thermal power stations
New hydroelectric power stations
Alexey Mastepanov
10
ENERGY FACTOR IN SINO-RUSSIAN
RELATIONS
•
What inhibits the development of cooperation
•
The dominant role of state-owned companies in this sector. State-owned
companies, especially large, by their nature are bureaucratic
organizations. Slow and conservative. This applies not only to our own, but
to Chinese companies, too. As stated by Chinese officials, often they are
not competitive and are burdened by problems such as ineffective
monitoring of costs and environmental pollution. “Large volumes of costs
still comprise non-operational costs of public companies: the support of
schools, hospitals, communities, pensions and needy employees. "
•
In Russia one speaks less about it, but in reality the lack of flexibility of
state companies is perhaps the most important brake to reorientation of
our energy exports to China and other Asian countries.
ENERGY FACTOR IN SINO-RUSSIAN
RELATIONS
Conclusion: several factors are pushing us to
development of energy cooperation between
Russia and China: territorial proximity,
demographics, lack of energy in one country
and redundancy of it in the other, close views
of political leaders on the problem.
THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION
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