Geophysical Research Abstracts
Vol. 18, EGU2016-11825, 2016
EGU General Assembly 2016
© Author(s) 2016. CC Attribution 3.0 License.
Volcano Deformation and Eruption Forecasting using Data Assimilation:
Case of Grimsvötn volcano in Iceland
Mary Grace Bato (1), Virginie Pinel (1), and Yajing Yan (2)
(1) ISTerre, Chambéry, Université Savoie Mont Blanc, France, (2) LISTIC, Annecy-Chambéry, Université Savoie Mont Blanc,
France
The recent advances in Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) imaging and the increasing number
of continuous Global Positioning System (GPS) networks recorded on volcanoes provide continuous and
spatially extensive evolution of surface displacements during inter-eruptive periods. For basaltic volcanoes, these
measurements combined with simple dynamical models (Lengliné et al. 2008 [1], Pinel et al, 2010 [2], Reverso et
al, 2014 [3]) can be exploited to characterise and constrain parameters of one or several magmatic reservoirs using
inversion methods.
On the other hand, data assimilation–a time-stepping process that best combines models and observations,
sometimes a priori information based on error statistics to predict the state of a dynamical system–has gained
popularity in various fields of geoscience (e.g. ocean-weather forecasting, geomagnetism and natural resources
exploration). In this work, we aim to first test the applicability and benefit of data assimilation, in particular the
Ensemble Kalman Filter [4], in the field of volcanology. We predict the temporal behaviors of the overpressures
and deformations by applying the two-magma chamber model of Reverso et. al., 2014 [3] and by using synthetic
deformation data in order to establish our forecasting strategy. GPS time-series data of the recent eruptions at
Grimsvötn volcano is used for the real case applicability of the method.
[1] Lengliné, O., D Marsan, J Got, V. Pinel, V. Ferrazzini, P. Obuko, Seismicity and deformation induced by magma
accumulation at three basaltic volcanoes, J. Geophys. Res., 113, B12305, 2008.
[2] V. Pinel, C. Jaupart and F. Albino, On the relationship between cycles of eruptive activity and volcanic edifice
growth, J. Volc. Geotherm. Res, 194, 150-164, 2010
[3] T. Reverso, J. Vandemeulebrouck, F. Jouanne, V. Pinel, T. Villemin, E. Sturkell, A two-magma chamber as a
source of deformation at Grimsvötn volcano, Iceland, JGR, 2014
[4] Evensen, G., The Ensemble Kalman Filter: theoretical formulation and practical implementation. Ocean Dyn.
53
, 343-367, 2003