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“Orange Revolution” in Ukraine: Transitological Interpretation
III. Democratic break at the end of 2004. Since 2005 Ukraine has been facing new
challenges connected, first of all, with the overcoming of political instability. Depending
on the relations between authority and opposition and which political groups can regain
stronger power, the duration of this stage can stretch from 5 up to 15 years. Logically the
transition should end with the consolidation of democracy that means irreversibility of
democratic changes.
Liberalization in all spheres of life began in the USSR in 1985 with M. Gorbachyov’s
coming to power. However, the weakening of the authoritarian regime became felt only
by the end of the 80s proved by the spread of a network of civil
organizations and rise of
first political parties.
Final disintegration of the USSR caused by an unsuccessful attempt of coup d’état in
August 1991 made all former USSR republics independent. The authority in new states
came into the hands of the former Soviet nomenclature which under the influence of
democratic transformations managed to change its political “make-up”. Ability of the old
Communist party and Komsomol nomenclature to remain in power by modifying its im-
age serves as an example of the post-Soviet political mimicry. Retention of positions of
the old nomenclature in Ukraine made it possible to form a complex symbiosis of family
authority and clan oligarchy during ten years of L. Kuchma’s presidency.
Processes of democratization started to be limited in Ukraine in the middle of the
90s. At that time a pseudo-democratic regime began to be formed. Transitology calls such
regimes hybrid. They use some institutions of democracy, such as elections and opposition
while retaining authoritarian methods of power execution [35].
Transformation processes in Ukraine shall not be viewed parochially. In my opinion,
it would be more correct to speak about a zigzag character of political transformations.
In this connection it is possible to consider two different processes. The first one has
to do with the changes of political institutions in the direction of democratization. The
second process deals with the movement in the opposite direction, that is, preservation
and development of authoritarian institutions. In other words, evolution of the political
regime in Ukraine during the period of 1991–2004 shall be looked at through the prism
of democratization and oligarchization.
From 1991 up till 2004 we were witnesses of a unique variant of public transforma-
tions in Ukraine, namely, the formation of the newest post-Soviet version of authoritari-
anism which has grown behind the facade of poorly developed democratic institutions.
The transition process in the majority of the post-Soviet republics that began at the end
of the 80s has not been completed yet from the point of view of a traditional transfor-
mation model. Moreover, some Central Asian republics show their return to traditional
(authoritarian) regimes while Russia and Belarus create modern “police” states. There-
fore, the transition model should be supplemented with the experience of the post-Soviet
countries. Two existing indicators (an institutional radical turn and legal continuity in
Ukraine) are not sufficient for the increase of the explanational potential of the model.
There should be at least one more. This indicator is connected with the change of elites. In