Risk Analysis DHS S&T Drinking Water Resilience Project Rick White, Ph.D. University of Colorado, Colorado Springs rwhite2@uccs.edu
Drinking Water infrastructure rated ‘D’ in 2013 ASCE Report Card - >100 years old
- 240,000 main breaks/year
$384.2 billion capital shortfall
Prioritize national investments in drinking water infrastructure Develop risk analysis methodology to uniformly compare risks across assets Extend methodology to include “lifeline” infrastructure sectors of Water, Energy, Transportation, & Communications.
Homeland security is about safeguarding the US from domestic catastrophic destruction. Domestic catastrophic destruction comes in two forms: natural & manmade. Manmade catastrophic destruction can be inflicted by non-state actors employing WMD or subverting critical infrastructure. - 1995 Tokyo Subway Attacks
- 2001 NYC & DC Attacks (9/11)
Developed by ASME at request of White House shortly after 9/11 Advocated risk method in 2006 National Infrastructure Protection Plan (NIPP); dropped from 2009 & 2013 NIPPs Made into AWWA J100-10 ANSI standard for Risk and Resilience of Water and Wastewater Systems Developed into EPA Vulnerability Self-Assessment Tool (VSAT)
Evaluate RAMCAP WRT to emerging threats from climate change, aging infrastructure, & cyber attack Evaluate RAMCAP WRT to lifeline infrastructure including Water, Energy, Transportation, & Communications Recommend requirements to make RAMCAP compliant with DWRP objectives
RAMCAP does not account for emerging threats from climate change, aging infrastructure, or cyber attack RAMCAP results are not uniform across different assets, let alone different sectors RAMCAP requires significant structural changes to meet DWRP objectives; developed LIRA prototype to demonstrate potential capability
LIRA LIRA Top-down risk analysis Default system failure modes Default threat & vulnerability data Fixed & Mobile asset analysis Assesses risk at the local, regional, and national levels Accommodates mitigation and resilience analysis Can be completed in 1-3 hours Accounts for emerging threats, and results comparable across lifeline sectors
LIRA LIRA R = C X V X T System Asset Identification System Failure Mode Definition Second Order Consequences Third Order Consequences Consequence Assessment Vulnerability Analysis Probability Analysis Risk Assessment Mitigation Optimization Resilience Optimization Input Data Analysis
Draft LIRA ANSI specification Conduct stakeholder survey to validate LIRA design Incorporate stakeholder feedback into revised ANSI specification
Ten questions related to LIRA and RAMCAP differences in speed, detail, & cost: “Would you rather...” questions framed to pick between competing features Two-month survey conducted from 27 Feb to 27 Apr 2016.
Received 26 responses to 684 requests for participation. Responses overwhelmingly supported LIRA over RAMCAP. Because of low participation, very large variation in confidence of results. Results were “convincing” but not “conclusive”.
Validate previous survey results and revise LIRA specification accordingly Build stakeholder awareness
Received $501K research funding over three years Deliver ANSI specification and working prototype by end of DWRP Y3 Contingent upon DHS funding, DWRP Y4 will take LIRA through ANSI process
- Richard White, Aaron Burkhart, Terrance Boult, and Edward Chow. “Towards a Comparable Cross-Sector Risk Analysis: RAMCAP Revisited“. International Conference on Apples-to-Apples: LIRA vs. RAMCAP X, IFIP AICT 485, pp. 221–237 (2016), DOI 10.1007/978-3-319-48737-3_13, November 2016.
- Richard White, Randy George, Terrance Boult, and C. Edward Chow. “Apples to Apples: RAMCAP and Emerging Threats to Lifeline Infrastructure”. Homeland Security Affairs 12, Article 2 (September 2016).
- Richard White, Aaron Burkhart, Terrance Boult, and Edward Chow. “Towards a Comparable Cross-Sector Risk Analysis: A re-examination of the Risk Analysis and Management for Critical Asset Protection (RAMCAP) methodology”. International Journal of Apples-to-Apples: LIRA vs. RAMCAP 14 (2016): 28-40, August 2016.
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