The Availability of Indium: The Present, Medium Term, and Long Term
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- Table of Contents 1
- Supply: A Snapshot of the Present .................................................................................................... 5
- Appendix A: Zinc, Copper, and Tin Reserves and Production Estimates .......................................... 61
- Appendix C. Metal Prices ......................................................................................................................... 66
- Appendix E: Earth Abundance of Various Elements ............................................................................ 79
vi This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) at www.nrel.gov/publications • Combining primary (770 tonnes) and secondary (610 tonnes) supplies, we estimate that total global refined indium supply was 1,380 tonnes in 2013, 40% of which occurred in China.
• As for production costs, this analysis indicates that producers require a minimum indium price of $100/kg (in 2011 U.S. dollar terms) to produce indium. Below this price, even the highest grade deposits cannot economically recover indium. At prices of ~$150– $300/kg of refined metal, most producers cover their variable costs of production, which are necessary to induce supply in the short run. At prices higher than $350/kg, indium supply is highly inflexible because of short-run capacity constraints. For the medium term (5–20 years into the future), incremental or increased indium production conceivably could come from five sources: 1. New byproduct production 2. Increased recovery efficiencies at primary operations 3. Increased secondary production from recycling of manufacturing wastes 4. Increased secondary production from recycling of EOL products 5. New mines that produce indium as a main product or coproduct (i.e., not as a byproduct). The quantitative analysis in this study is limited to all but the fourth category; that is, it focuses on new and expanded mines (and associated processing facilities) and improved recovery efficiencies in both primary production and the recycling of manufacturing wastes. We do not analyze the potential for production from EOL recycling from PV modules because the medium term covers the next 5–20 years and solar modules have a useful life of 25–30 years. The quantities of indium available are also constrained by known developed and undeveloped resources (in the ground), as well as the stock of material in existing products. Medium-term availability of indium has the following characteristics: • Based solely on expanded and new mines that produce indium as a byproduct or coproduct (mainly along with zinc), primary indium production nearly doubles, from 770 tonnes in 2013 to 1,365 tonnes in 2031. • Recovery of indium from zinc ores is inefficient, and improvements in recovery efficiencies represent the largest medium-term source of new supply. Typically, less than 20% of the indium in ore is recovered. When including the possibility for greater recovery throughout the supply chain, primary production could increase to 5,560 tonnes by 2031, highlighting the significant impact that advancements in technology could have on supply. • The relevant production costs to consider in the medium term are variable (or operating) costs and capital costs, because investments are needed to make medium-term supplies available. Therefore, prices need to cover operating and capital costs to justify investment and operations. The analysis here suggests that prices need to be at least $350–375/kg to induce significant medium-term supply. At prices of $400–$450/kg, most of the tonnage noted in the previous bulleted point would come to market. As such, ~$400/kg can be
vii This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) at www.nrel.gov/publications thought of as a medium-term price floor for indium; stated slightly differently, prices lower than $400/kg could be justified only if there were a near complete substitution away from the material. (At any specific time in the medium term, market conditions could force prices to drop below $400/kg, but such low levels are likely to be temporary; at these prices, primary and secondary suppliers are unlikely to continue investing to maintain productive capacity.) • Although not explicitly modeled as part of this exercise, secondary supply from consumer waste (EOL products) could become a source of supply in the medium term. It is difficult to estimate the cost of such supply, but given that current price levels have not justified the recovery of indium from laptops, cellular phones, and other electronic devices (mostly because they are so widely dispersed), prices would likely need to exceed $700/kg to make recovery from these sources profitable. Furthermore, although a less dispersed (and possibly more profitable) source of scrap could be found in EOL solar panels, we do not expect this to contribute significantly to supply until the 2030s. Given the average expected life of solar panels of some 20 years and the relatively recent installation of most panels, significant quantities of indium-bearing solar panels would not become sources of secondary supply until the 2030s. Finally, for the long term (in the 2030s and beyond), indium availability is constrained mostly by our level of knowledge about the Earth’s crust and our technological capabilities. We are not in danger of “running out” of indium, considering the scale of its potential demand relative to its estimated amount in the crust. Rather, the critical issues relate to production costs. As a starting point, using a methodology developed by Green (2009), we estimate that the central tendency for long-term prices to be ~$600/kg; $100–$3,300/kg would cover 80% of possible outcomes (all in 2011 U.S. dollars).
viii This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) at www.nrel.gov/publications Table of Contents 1
3.1 Introduction ...................................................................................................................................... 5 3.2 Deposits and Reserves ..................................................................................................................... 6 3.3 Mine Production .............................................................................................................................. 9 3.4 Smelting and Refining ................................................................................................................... 11 3.5 Processing of Indium-Bearing Ores and Recovery of Indium ....................................................... 17 3.5.1 Comminution .................................................................................................................... 18 3.5.2 Beneficiation ..................................................................................................................... 18 3.5.3 Smelting ............................................................................................................................ 19 3.5.4 Refining ............................................................................................................................ 19 3.5.5 Costs of Refining .............................................................................................................. 21 3.5.6 Overall Recovery Efficiency ............................................................................................. 21 3.6 Summary of Primary Production ................................................................................................... 23 3.7 Secondary Production .................................................................................................................... 25 3.7.1 Recycling Process ............................................................................................................. 28 3.7.2 Estimates of Secondary Supply ........................................................................................ 28 3.7.3 Recycling From End-of-Life Products .............................................................................. 30 3.8 Total Primary and Secondary Production ...................................................................................... 31 4
4.1 Expansion of Zinc (or Other Main Product) Production ................................................................ 35 4.1.1 Mount Pleasant (North Zone), Canada ............................................................................. 37 4.1.2 Malku Khota, Bolivia ....................................................................................................... 37 4.1.3 Pinguino, Argentina .......................................................................................................... 39 4.1.4 Pirquitas, Argentina .......................................................................................................... 40 4.1.5 La Oroya, Peru .................................................................................................................. 41 4.1.6 South Crofty, England ...................................................................................................... 41 4.2 Increased Recovery at Existing Facilities ...................................................................................... 42 4.3 Summary Expansion of Primary Supply ........................................................................................ 44 4.4 Expansion of Secondary Supply .................................................................................................... 47 4.5 Summary of Medium-Term Supply ............................................................................................... 48 5
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