Polar operations and space weather mike stills

POLAR OPERATIONS AND SPACE WEATHER

• MIKE STILLS

• INTERNATIONAL OPERATIONS

• FLIGHT DISPATCH

• 29APR08

HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE YEAR TO YEAR

• 1999 - 12 POLAR DEMO FLIGHTS

• 2000 - 253 POLAR FLIGHTS

• 2001 - 466 POLAR FLIGHTS

• 2002 - 471 POLAR FLIGHTS

• 2003 - 578 POLAR FLIGHTS

• 2004 - 1096 POLAR FLIGHTS

• 2005 - 1402 POLAR FLIGHTS

• 2006 - 1484 POLAR FLIGHTS

• 2007 - 1832 POLAR FLIGHTS

POLAR OPERATIONAL CONCERNS (DEFINED AS NORTH OF 78N LATITUDE)

• POTENTIAL HAZARDS

• 1) SOLAR ACTIVITY

• 2) COLD TEMPERATURES

• 3) DIVERSION SUPPORT

• 4) COMMUNICATION RESTRAINTS

FAA REQUIREMENTS

• POLAR TRAINING

• SATCOM (OR HF DATA LINK)

• AED (DEFIBRILLATORS)

• RECOVERY PLAN IN THE EVENT OF DIVERSION

• 2 COLD WEATHER ANTI-EXPOSURE SUITS

• ABILITY TO OPERATE IN AREAS OF MAGNETIC UNRELIABILITY

• FUEL FREEZE ANALYSIS PROGRAM

• PLAN FOR SOLAR ACTIVITY

POTENTIAL ISSUES

• HUMAN SAFETY FACTOR - LOWER, LESS EFFICIENT ALTITUDES TO LIMIT POSSIBLE EXPOSURE TO RADIATION

• COMMUNICATION FACTOR - FAA MANDATES RELIABLE COMMUNICATION OVER THE ENTIRE ROUTE OF FLIGHT

• ( SATCOM LOST AT 82 N/ RELIANCE ON HF )

• NAVIGATION FACTOR - UAL AIRCRAFT EQUIPPED WITH GPS AND INERTIAL REFERENCE UNITS

DURING ADVERSE SOLAR ACTIVITY, UAL POLICY RESTRICTS FLIGHTS TO SPECIFIC ROUTES AND ALTITUDES. UAL POLICY IN PART, IS DERIVED FROM AND BASED ON THE NOAA SPACE WEATHER SCALES

POLAR WEATHER PACKAGE CONTAINS SOLAR ACTIVITY AND SWPC RECOMMENDATIONS

• POLAR WEATHER PACKAGE CONTAINS SOLAR ACTIVITY AND SWPC RECOMMENDATIONS

• ON SITE METEOROLOGISTS MONITOR SWPC WEBSITES AND MAINTAIN CONTACT WITH THE SWPC

• SWPC ENSURES UAL HAS TIMELY INFORMATION

SOLAR EVENTS AND RESPONSE

• JANUARY 2005

• 26 FLIGHTS OPERATED ON LESS THAN OPTIMUM POLAR ROUTES DUE TO SOLAR ACTIVITY

• CHICAGO TO HONG KONG ANCHORAGE STOP 4 CONSECUTIVE DAYS, PENALTY 180 TO 210 MINUTES

• CHICAGO TO BEIJING PENALTIES 18 TO 55 MINUTES

• BEIJING TO CHICAGO PENALTIES 55 MINUTES TO 80 MINUTES

SOLAR EVENTS AND RESPONSE

• SEPTEMBER EVENT 2005

• CHICAGO TO HONG KONG - ANCHORAGE STOP, SCHEDULE PENALTY 180 MINUTES

• DECEMBER EVENT 2006

• CHICAGO TO HONG KONG - ANCHORAGE STOP 2 CONSECUTIVE DAYS

• 5 OTHER FLIGHTS BOUND FOR ASIA FLEW LESS THAN OPTIMUM ROUTES AND/OR ALTITUDES

POLAR MOVEMENTS

• 3731 REPORTED MOVEMENTS IN 2005

• 5308 REPORTED MOVEMENTS IN 2006

• 7291 REPORTED MOVEMENTS IN 2007

GRL 15APRIL 2008

• UAL835 1600 2201 KORD ZSPD 1601 2202 340 ORVIT

• AAL289 1557 2205 KORD ZSPD 1604 2212 340 ORVIT

• AAL167 1616 2311 KJFK RJAA 1616 2311 340 ORVIT

• DAL91 1553 2316 KATL RKSI 1558 2321 340 ORVIT

• DAL19 1428 2152 KATL ZSPD 1428 2152 340 ORVIT

• UAL897 1646 2325 KIAD ZBAA 1652 2331340 ORVIT

• ACA001 1736 2341 CYYZ RJAA 1736 2341 340 ORVIT

• ACA015 1400 2006 CYYZ VHHH 1400 2006 340 ORVIT

• ACA087 1746 2351 CYYZ ZSPD 1746 2351 340 ORVIT

• AAL153 1811 0021 KORD RJAA 1811 0021 340 ORVIT

• KAL038 1815 0024 KORD RKSI 1822 0031 340 ORVIT

• NWA25 1839 0047 KDTW RJAA 1839 0047 340 ORVIT

• KAL036 1735 0053 KATL RKSI 1739 0057 340 ORVIT

• NWA11 1954 0202 KDTW RJAA 1954 0202 340 ORVIT

• NWA71 2019 0226 KDTW RJGG 2019 0226 340 ORVIT

• CCA982 2040 0310 KJFK ZBAA 2040 0310 340 ORVIT

• UAL803 1705 2359 KIAD RJAA 1705 2359 380 ORVIT

• NWA69 2001 0209 KDTW RJBB 2001 020 380 ORVIT

A DECADE AGO THERE WAS NO NEED OR REQUIREMENT TO TAKE SPACE WEATHER INTO OPERATIONAL CONSIDERATION. TODAY, UNITED CLOSELY MONITORS SPACE WEATHER AND IS CONSTANTLY ENHANCING PROCEDURES TO MEET CRITERIA THAT RECENT RESEARCH AND DATA MANDATE.

WHAT WILL THE NEXT DECADE BRING?

PROCEDURAL CONSIDERATIONS

• GOES MONITORING

• D REGION ABSORPTION

• POLAR CAP ABSORPTION

• AURORAL ABSORPTION

• PARTICLE ENERGY LEVELS

• X RAY FLUX

• K INDEX

• PROTON FLUX

QUESTIONS?