Some context… Climate change - By 2100, potentially more rapid change than at any time in human history
- Major threat to water, food, health, shelter…
- At least 61 states at risk of armed conflict related to climate change
- Most vulnerable are least responsible for the problem
Nuclear non-proliferation treaty Rising religious fundamentalism - Can affect both terrorist groups and some governments
In a world such as this, should we expand or phase out nuclear power?
Nuclear weapons proliferation Many overlaps between civilian and military nuclear technologies/ materials/ skills, for example: - Uranium enrichment
- Civilian use: 3-5% U-235
- Military use: ~90% U-235
- Plutonium from reprocessing nuclear waste
Proliferation risk is greater from plutonium - On average ~300kg plutonium produced per modern power station per year – reprocessing would yield enough to make up to 40 nuclear bombs
9 August, 1945 ~6 kg of plutonium - equivalent to 21,000,000 kg of TNT
Heat, blast and radiation killed at least 70,000 people - from population of 200,000
Almost all buildings within 1½ miles of ‘ground zero’ destroyed
NW proliferation: risks More civilian nuclear facilities increases potential for diversion to weapons - Determined states which have access to civilian nuclear programme are hard to stop going military
- Terrorists interested in stealing fissile material
International Atomic Energy Agency (Regulator) - complaints of lack of resources
- also has a role promoting nuclear power
Will the nuclear non-proliferation treaty hold?
NW proliferation: examples Diversion of civilian nuclear know-how to create Pakistan’s nuclear weapons Current concerns over Iran’s nuclear power programme
The role of the UK UK is very influential country - Member of UN Security Council, G8, EU, Head of Commonwealth
UK plans to retain its nuclear weapons UK go-ahead for new nuclear power sends strong message on climate, energy and security strategy Also, can the UK keep its own plutonium secure for next 100+ years?
Plutonium-MOX economy? Use of MOX fuel (part plutonium) in nuclear reactors to prolong uranium supplies - presence of plutonium leads to increased risk of proliferation
Potential for move to ‘Generation IV’ reactors completely fuelled by plutonium - even greater proliferation risk
Security & safety of nuclear facilities Risk of major nuclear ‘incident’ is very low, but… - Terrorist groups consider nuclear facilities as potential targets
- ‘Successful’ attack on high-level waste/ plutonium store could be worse than Chernobyl
- Even a ‘failed’ attack could cause major disruption
Labour’s think-tank “Not only does more civil nuclear activity mean more nuclear weapons related materials being available to potentially fall into the hands of terrorists or rogue states worldwide, but reactors, waste sites and reprocessing plants themselves are also possible terrorist targets which, if hit, could lead to massive loss of life and economic disruption”
Are the climate benefits of nuclear good enough to offset the security concerns?
Nuclear power and carbon emissions Nuclear fuel cycle - uranium mining + milling
- UF6 conversion
- U-235 fuel enrichment
- nuclear fuel fabrication
- fuel transportation
- reactor operation
- waste encapsulation
- waste transportation
- future waste disposal
CO2 emissions especially depend on uranium ore grade uranium ore type U-235 enrichment method future nuclear waste plans - eg underground repository
also - construction of power station
Estimated Nuclear CO2 Emissions
Even if low carbon… Sustainable Development Commission: Replacement nuclear programme would only lead to 4% cut in CO2 emissions from 1990 levels Not realised until at least 2024 “A new nuclear power programme could divert public funding away from more sustainable technologies that will be needed regardless, hampering other long term efforts to move to a low carbon economy with diverse energy sources”
What are the alternatives? Renewable energy - Wind
- Bioenergy
- Solar
- Hydro
- Wave
- Tidal
- Geothermal
Energy efficiency - more than 10 times energy produced by nuclear power
Combined heat & power (CHP) - UK: 7% of electricity
- Netherlands: 30%
- Denmark: 50%
Case 1 - Tyndall Centre study Non-nuclear path to reduce UK carbon emissions by ~85% by 2050 Energy consumption down by ~40% by 2050 due to efficiency technologies & behaviour change (driven by economic reform) Strong support for R&D of renewables, carbon capture & storage, hydrogen fuel cells
Case 2 – CAT study Non-nuclear path to reduce UK carbon emissions by ~100% by 2027 Energy consumption down by ~50% by 2027 due to efficiency technologies & behaviour change – including wide use of Tradable Carbon Quotas Strong support for R&D of renewables & energy storage (but reliance on expanding existing and near-term technologies)
The role of R&D To realise the scale of emissions reduction necessary to tackle climate change, we need serious funding of non-nuclear energy R&D – especially renewable energy
Conclusions Nuclear power creates serious security problems Major factors affecting global security over coming decades are likely to greatly increase these problems Low-carbon benefits of nuclear are not great enough to outweigh drawbacks Alternatives have great potential to reduce carbon emissions without nuclear security risks
References
Dostları ilə paylaş: |