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Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Armenia and Belarus in Tashkent on
7
th
October 2002. Azerbaijan did not join this organization in
spite of pressure from Russia. Although Russia pushed for it,
member states did not agree to transform it into a military
organization. It continues to operate as an ineffective and
unsuccessful organization. Although the organization
protects territorial integrity of its members, it is possible to
say that the organization will build influence due to Russia’s
attitude. As in the case of NATO and Warsaw Pact, a
common enemy or a common threat is necessary for a
collective security organization. It is not easy for Russia to
find a common enemy or threat for this security organization
and its members. These members interpret interests and
threats differently and they have sympathy for the western
world. That’s why Russia will have difficulty in persuading
and motivating its allies. Azerbaijan did not join the
organization because it believed that Russia had a role in
losing its territorial integrity. The problem would have been
solved long time ago if Armenia had been taking decisions
independently from Russia. Armenia’s relations with Turkey
were also damaged due to the Karabakh issue and the door
opening to the West is shut for Armenia. Russia’s support
for Armenia is coming at a huge cost in terms of economic,
military, political and diplomatic developments. Drop in oil
prices, conflicts in Crimea, Ukraine and Syria have created
huge burdens on Russian economy. Similarly, despite the
fact that it is a poor country, Armenia employs soldiers and
purchases arms more than it can afford. In return for the
support that it extends, Russia exploits Armenia’s scarce
resources. Likewise, Azerbaijan allocates a higher budget
into defense and this results in less resources for national
development and welfare. Whichever way you look at it, it is
a loss for everyone.
One of the great powers in the region, Iran’s
approach is both interesting and too difficult to bring a
solution to the problem. The fact that Iran and Azerbaijan
are both Muslim countries and there is about 40 million
Azerbaijani Turks in Iran would make one think that Iran
would support Azerbaijan socially and politically. The
reality is in fact surprising because it supports Armenia and
turns a blind eye to Russian domination of the area.
Although we could explain this approach by calling it
152
“realpolitik” this situation does not help Iran at all. By
adopting this policy, Iran takes a stance against two
neighboring countries, Turkey and Azerbaijan and does not
seem to back down. In other words, it does not abstain from
it. It is not apprehended by discontent and sanctions from
these two countries. In fact, Iran attaches greater importance
to Armenia than the two neighboring countries. This attitude
is shared by Persian people and the educated as well as the
government itself. For example, Professor Bahram Emir
Ahmediyandan from Tehran University wrote an article for a
popular news site “Habaronline” and stated that “A win for
Armenians in the Azerbaijan-Armenian conflict means a win
for Iran. Turkey’s support for Azerbaijan extends the
lifespan of the problem.” Writing such an article that would
not be appreciated by almost one half of the population, he
demonstrates that Persian ethnic influence is very strong in
the country. The author also discusses Iran-Armenian
relations in depth and explains how content the state of
Armenia is by Iran’s support and how important it is for
them to receive such assistance: “Without Iran’s support,
there would not be a state of Armenia.” The author here
takes a pro-Armenia stance and does not seem to be
refraining from Iranian citizens of Turkish descent or
reaction from Turkey and Azerbaijan.
As a matter of fact, Armenia sustained its relations
with Iran in spite of the sanctions imposed by the United
States on Iran and warnings from the western countries. The
western world however, turned a blind eye to Armenia’s
decision and did not impose any sanctions. The energy
agreement between Iran and Armenia signed in 2007
became one of the most prominent agreement ever signed
and implemented between the two countries. According to
this agreement, a pipe line would be established between the
two countries and Iran would provide gas and as Armenia
does not have financial resources, it would pay back to Iran
with electricity generated from the gas. In return for one
cubic meter of gas, it would provide three kilowatt of
electricity. The facility that can generate electricity from gas
was established near Iranian border in Armenia by Iranian
engineers in 2008. As it can be derived from this agreement,
Iran supports Armenia. Although political relations between
the two countries are on solid grounds, economic relations
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are not at the desired level. As mentioned above, although
the two economies complement each other on several areas,
there are significant problems in terms of technology and
finance. Total trade volume of the two countries in 2015 is
300 million dollars, which is quite low. Although bilateral
visits between Iran and Armenia are not very often, they
took place occasionally in order to show the significance of
the relations. The most recent high-level visit was paid by
Eshaq Jahangiri, First Vice President of Iran (equal to Prime
Minister) in 14
th
-16
th
October 2015. Jahangiri visited
Armenia with a crowded delegation and signed several
political, economic and cultural agreements. He held
meetings with Hovik Abrahamyan and President Serzh
Sargsyan. A few significant deals made that formed the basis
for trade and economic partnership included banking,
agriculture
and
information
and
communication
technologies. It was aimed and planned that Iranian trade
centers would be opened in Armenia and Iranian products
would be sold in former Soviet countries through these
centers over Armenia, a member of Eurasian Economic
Union. Another deal was reached on construction of a
railway line, which is not implemented yet but if it is, it will
be a major acquisition for both countries. The railway would
not only connect the two countries but also allow Armenia, a
country with no borders at sea, to reach the Persian Gulf.
The railway project the construction of which began in 2013
is being carried out by Russian company FZA. Armenian
strategist and Iran specialist Vardan Vestaniyan has pointed
out that Armenia could finally break away from Turkish and
Azerbaijan’s blockade and gain independence thanks to
projects implemented in cooperation with Iran. Despite these
agreements and the cooperation between the two countries, a
significant progress has not been made since 1992, the year
official relations started. Despite the fact that two countries
are willing to proceed, their means and resources would not
allow it. One of the first countries that recognized Armenia’s
sovereignty in 1992, Iran’s expectations from Armenia are
mostly of political nature. Armenia, on the other hand, has
economic expectations from Iran. The first official meeting
between presidents of the two countries was held in 8
th
-10
th
September 2014 between Iranian President Mohammed
Khatami and Armenian President Robert Kocharyan and
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since then every one of the elected Presidents of the two
countries held meetings. It demonstrates the importance the
two countries attach to one another. Iran indirectly
recognizes the so-called Armenian genocide that is claimed
to have taken place in 1915 during the Ottoman era. It does
not recognize it directly due to its citizens of Turkish descent
and relations with Turkey, so it acts in a way to please
Armenia. For example, Vice President Hamid Baghei
recognized the so-called genocide in a statement: “A
hundred years ago, genocide was carried out against
Armenians during the Ottoman era. There is not an Ottoman
state anymore but Armenians still ask for apology and
compensation from Turkey.” With such a statement, he
indirectly recognized the so-called genocide. The protest
from Turkish government was responded by Iran with a
statement that it was his personal opinion, not an official
statement and a crisis between the two countries was averted
but this clear statement is important as it reveals true
intentions of Iran.
Iran’s fondness of Armenia despite the risk of facing
the opposition of Turkey and Azerbaijan is inconceivable.
Iran has been adopting this policy since 1992 but not it has
not generated any favorable outcome. Iran has alienated its
citizens of Turkish descent as well as taking on Turkey and
Azerbaijan, two neighboring countries. It may be trying to
minimize the effects of isolation by utilizing Armenia’s
positive image in the eyes of the western countries, which
has failed so far. In fact, Iran has not been able to interpret
and take advantage of Armenia’s power and credibility by
the West. Colloquially, throwing a stone is not worth the
frog that is scared by it. Iran’s support for Armenia in
Karabakh issue have not sparked an upheaval among Turks
in the country but they don’t seem to be content with the
policy or make sense of it. Likewise Turkey questions Iran’s
relations with Armenia and has its doubts. As Greece also
joins these relations, Iran’s intentions against Turkey and
Azerbaijan are not friendly. Iran does not seek economic,
cultural and peaceful goals in its relations with these
countries. Iran seems to unite with Armenia and Greece
against Turkey and Azerbaijan, countries that they regard as
common enemies. Armenia and Greece’s positions are
understandable but as an Islamic country with 40 million
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citizens of Turkish descent, Iran’s policy is debatable and
needs explaining. These reckless and fearless policies of Iran
against Turkey and Azerbaijan do not originate from the
might and skill of Iranian state but from Turkey and
Azerbaijan’s unskillfulness and inability to defend their
cause. For example, if 40 million Persians lived in Turkey or
Azerbaijan, Iran would take a great advantage of it. After all,
everyone is mastered at their own game.
The only country that Azerbaijan does not have
problems in security, foreign relations, economy and cultural
relations is Turkey. The main reason behind this is that
people of the two countries are of the same descent. Since
1991, the year Azerbaijan gained its independence, relations
between the two countries have been outstanding. This is
particularly important when one considers relations between
Arab countries and relations between North and South
Korea. Turkey has supported Azerbaijan in military
organization, reaching NATO standards as well as tactical,
equipment and military capacity development. It sided with
Azerbaijan in every matter including the Karabakh problem.
Similarly, Azerbaijan sided with Turkey in every matter. In
addition to being sister countries, the two countries have
common interests. Armenia has been having problems with
both Turkey and Azerbaijan historically including land
disputes and psychology of its people. Both countries have
to deal with issues with Russia, EU and Iran before
Armenia. AKP government has sought ways to solve
problems with Armenia. Upon support and pressure by
western countries, USA particularly, Turkish Foreign Affairs
Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu and Armenian Foreign Affairs
Minister Eduard Nalbandyan met in Zurich on 10
th
October
2009 with participation of US Secretary of State and other
European ministers and signed an agreement in a spectacular
ceremony. The agreement was responded with doubt and
criticized by Turkish public. Azerbaijan expressed its
concerns. Armenian public were not content either. Russia
opposed the agreement because if the problem is solved,
Armenia would more likely make a move towards the West.
That’s why both countries took a step back and the Zurich
agreement would not be put into practice. Thus an
agreement that Azerbaijan was not content with was gone.
What troubled Azerbaijan and Turkish public was that
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Turkey was sealing the deal without solving the Karabakh
issue. In fact, Turkey has supported Azerbaijan in that matter
since 1992. A policy of not reconciling without bringing a
solution to this problem has been adopted. That’s why
Zurich agreement, which ignored the problem, was criticized
right from the start.
The biggest security threat for Azerbaijan today is
securing territorial integrity that was threatened due to
Karabakh. Azerbaijan government allocated 18.3% of its
annual budget to defense. It is a record and quite high
compared to other countries’ defense budgets. Azerbaijan’s
total budget for 2016 is 16.264 billion manat. A 1,837 billion
manat is allocated to defense and it corresponds to 1,754
billion dollars. It’s almost sixty times higher than Armenia’s
defense budget. However, it must be noted that Armenia is
backed by the Russian army. As is known, Russia has two
military bases in Armenia, one located in Gyumri and
another at the airport in capital Yerevan. Russia has been
assisting Armenia through military and economic aid while
it keeps military and defense cooperation with Azerbaijan at
minimum level. Russia established a base in Qabala in 1985
that was mostly used as a recreational facility. Around 1,400
soldiers were based there. Russia took control of the base for
a short period of time after the Soviet Union. In 1996,
President Heydar Aliyev released a decree and declared that
Azerbaijan had taken possession of the base. In 2002, two
countries signed an agreement and Qabala military base was
rented to Russia for ten years. In 2012, two sides discussed
to extend the lease but there was controversy as Azerbaijan
asked for a raise. Relations between the two have not been
strong due to Russia’s support for Armenia. Russia’s stance
in Karabakh issue and negative attitude towards
Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity have caused a lot of concern
on the side of Azerbaijan. Taking into account this situation
and knowing that it would leave Qabala sooner or later,
Russia
informed
Azerbaijan
government
about
its
withdrawal from Qabala on 23
rd
January 2013 with an
official statement. Thus Russia has abandoned its only
military facility in Azerbaijan. This is indeed a historic
moment. In fact, it ended the presence of Russian military in
Azerbaijan that had existed since 1828. This is a vital
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development for Azerbaijan’s sovereignty and territorial
integrity.
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