Introduction: Levels of Analysis, Ologies, Paradigms

Introduction: Levels of Analysis, Ologies, Paradigms

• Introduction: Levels of Analysis, Ologies, Paradigms

• Four Paradigms

• Realism, Liberalism, Constructivism, Feminism

• Debates

• Conditions for Cooperation
• Balancing and Bandwagoning
• Democratic Peace
• Organizations
• Psychology

1st Level: Individual

• 1st Level: Individual

• Nature of “Man” (“Man seeks Power,” “Men seek power”)
• Individual Leaders (“George Bush seeks power”)

• 2nd Level: State

• Country level
• Nature of (some) States (“Democracies are less warlike”)
• Individual States (“The US seeks power”)
• Organization level
• Nature of Organizations (“SOPs lead to errors”)
• Individual Organizations (“The DOD seeks power”)

3rd Level: State System

• 3rd Level: State System

• Interaction
• Interaction among Units (“Democracies don’t attack each other”)
• Relational Arguments (“Allies don’t attack each other”)
• Structure
• Distribution of Power/Threat/Interests (“Bipolar is more stable than multipolar”)
• Positional Arguments (“Hegemons seek power”)

Different Paradigms (realism, liberalism, constructivism, feminism) can be seen as:

• Different Paradigms (realism, liberalism, constructivism, feminism) can be seen as:

• Competing perspectives on the world
• Explaining different phenomena
• A division of labor between determining interests and outcomes
• Empirical bets on the frequency of international phenomena

Ontology: What is

• Ontology: What is

• varies by, within paradigms

• Epistemology: How we can know

• (post)positivistic except for critical theory

• Methodology: How we go about doing it

• varies by paradigm (game theory, statistics, process tracing, focused comparison)

Thucydides 1972 [400 BC]

• Thucydides 1972 [400 BC]

• Premise: Justice only exists between equals
• Prescription:
• Strong do what they will, weak suffer what they must.

• Hobbes 1909 [1651]

• Premises:
• Men are equal, which leads to diffidence (suspicion), which (along with competition and glory) leads to war
• Prescription:
• Submit to central authority
• Without central authority, man is in a state of war (no peace)

Premises

• Premises

• Objectivity: World is separate, can be observed, relatively constant
• National interest is defined as power

• Analysis

• 1st Level: Man desires power (control of man over man) as an end
• 2nd Level: Some states better than others at balancing (not democracies)
• 3rd Level: Consider the interests of others

• Prescriptions

• Minimize risks, maximize benefits, balance power

Premises

• Premises

• Ordering principle: Anarchy (vs. Hierarchy)
• Character of the Units: States treated as functionally identical, rational, seek survival
• Distribution of capabilities: Material

• Analysis (3rd level)

• States will balance against each other
• States will be concerned with relative power gains
• Bipolar systems more stable than multipolar ones

• Prescriptions

• States try to maintain status-quo: Defensive Realism

Premises

• Premises

• Anarchy
• Effective Offense
• Intentions are uncertain
• Own Survival
• Utilitarian Rationality

• Analysis (3rd Level)

• Fear: Other states are deadly enemies
• Self-Help: No subordination of interests
• Power Maximization: Only way to be secure (Means, not End)

• Prescriptions

• States are all revisionist except hegemon: Offensive Realism

Hobbes 1909 [1651]

• Hobbes 1909 [1651]

• Premises: State of Nature is War
• Prescription:
• Central Authority leads to commerce, internal peace

• Locke 1824 [1689]

• Premises: State of Nature is Peace, Violations cause War
• Prescription:
• Central Authority stops retribution cycle

• Kant 1917 [1795]

• Premises: State of Nature is War, Nations natural units
• Prescription:
• Republican (rule of law) Constitutions
• Interstate Trade
• International Organizations

Premises

• Premises

• Treat others as ethical objects, with freedoms, representation, and participation
• This can be applied to the international system as well
• Four institutions: Juridical equality, representative government, private property rights, economy shaped by supply and demand

• Analysis

• 1st Level: Regular rotation of office
• 2nd Level: Individuals who rule the polity bear costs of wars; states act more rationally; commerce and trade pacifies.
• 3rd Level: International law

• Prescriptions

• Promote trade, democratization, organizations

Premises

• Premises

• Cooperation is possible, but states need help
• Depends on factors other than material power

• Analysis (3rd Level)

• Institutions Reduce:
• Uncertainty of intentions
• Transaction Costs
• Institutions Increase:
• Shadow of the future (multiple plays, value of the future)
• Transparency

• Prescriptions

• More institutions!

Rousseau 1913 [1755] (A Discourse on the Origin of Inequality)

• Rousseau 1913 [1755] (A Discourse on the Origin of Inequality)

• Premises
• State of Nature is peaceful and lacks morality
• War is created through civilization
• Prescriptions
• Social reform, collective state with “General Will”

Premises

• Premises

• People act towards other actors on the basis of their understanding of those actors (collective meaning)
• Actors acquire (relational) identities by participating in collective meanings
• Identities are the basis of interests
• An institution is a relatively stable set or structure of identities and interest
• Self-help is such an institution

• Analysis (3rd Level)

• Anarchy is what states make of it:
• Competitive (Hobbesian)
• Individualistic (Lockean)
• Cooperative (Kantian)

• Prescriptions

• States should act based on how their actions reinforce structures

Premises

• Premises

• Dynamic Objectivity: World is not separate, is affected by our lenses.
• Language and values contain gendered assumptions

• Analysis

• 1st Level: Human nature doesn’t lead to will to power; power can be defined as collective empowerment.
• 3rd Level: States in weak positions build coalitions rather than balance, achieve cooperative solutions. Common moral elements can de-escalate international conflict

• Prescriptions

• Band together to solve pressing collective world problems

Premises

• Premises

• Security dilemma (SD increase in my security decreases your security) prevents cooperation
• Offense/defense advantage and differentiation affect this

• Analysis (3rd Level)

• Differentiation eliminates SD
• Defensive advantage mitigates SD

• Prescriptions

• Get defensive weapons where possible

Premises

• Premises

• Balance versus threat, not power

• Analysis

• Bandwagoning (3rd Level) if:
• Relatively weak
• Geography (Unavailable allies)
• End stages of war
• Balance otherwise

• Prescriptions

• Better to balance than bandwagon in most circumstances

Premises

• Premises

• Treat others as ethical objects
• This can be applied to the international system as well
• Juridical equality, representative government, private property rights, economy shaped by supply and demand

• Analysis

• 1st Level: Regular rotation of office
• 2nd Level: Individuals who rule the polity bear costs of wars; states act more rationally; commerce and trade pacifies.
• 3rd Level: International law

• Prescriptions

• Promote trade, democratization, organizations

Classical Realism

• Classical Realism

• Premises: Rational Unitary Actor
• Analysis (<3rd Level): Optimal decisions are made for security.

• Organizational Process

• Premises: Government is a group of organizations
• Analysis (<2nd Level): Inputs and outputs are made based on SOPs that are good for the organization, which constrain decisions.

• Bureaucratic Policy

• Premises: Government is a group of interested individuals in particular positions
• Analysis (~1st Level): Decisions are made based on bargaining games between individuals with different levels of power in different positions with different psychologies.

Cognitive Biases (Jervis)

• Cognitive Biases (Jervis)

• Premises: See what you expect to see
• Analysis: Historical and/or Personal images lead to incorrect attribution, premature closure, perceptual satisficing, masking, insensitivity, belief-system overkill, and rationalization

• Motivated Biases (Janis and Mann)

• Premises: See what you want to see
• Analysis: If risks are low, get unconflicted aherence or change; if can’t hope to solve the problem, defensive avoidance or hypervigilance.