Gef-iw5 etps mangroves

G.Current Baseline (Business-as-Usual Scenario) and Future Scenarios without the Project

While some laws and regulations related to mangrove conservation already exist in the ETPS countries (see above), continued weak implementation and enforcement will result in continued deforestation and degradation of mangroves, in particular the large mangrove formations in multiple use estuarine areas that are candidate focal sites in this project. Strengthening these laws and their enforcement, however, is highly unlikely to occur in the next decade or beyond, as there is limited coordination or support for mangrove conservation and restoration across multiple scales. The absence of such a plan articulated across multiple scales and that addresses both the drivers of direct mangrove destruction (such as conversion for shrimp ponds, urban development, and extraction of mangrove for wood, charcoal and tannins) and those occurring in adjacent upstream and inshore marine waters (such as upstream sources of sediment and pollutants, upstream changes to freshwater inflow, coastal sources of pollutants) will result in only piecemeal actions that fail to protect mangroves.

Although each ETPS country has gained valuable experience with site-level approaches and best practices to promote mangrove conservation that are highly relevant in each country, these remain isolated efforts that will not be transferred or replicated by adjacent nations and will remain largely unknown to the global conservation, management and policy community. Similarly, while there is significant technical capacity on mangroves in some ETPS institutions, weak networks and lack of knowledge sharing platforms mean that this capacity is not broadly available. This lack of coordination particularly impacts the region’s capacity to address trans-boundary drivers of mangrove degradation and loss and the subsequent losses of ecosystem services that also impact all the ETPS countries. The lack of a regional to national level plan for mangrove conservation will mean that this isolation of expertise will likely continue.

If current rates of mangrove loss continue, nearly all unprotected mangroves globally could be lost in the next 100 years (Pendleton et al 2012), and this trend is apparent in the ETPS countries. While all four ETPS countries have some level of protection through policy, legislation and management relating to mangrove conservation, these mechanisms have had variable success in reducing losses. Hence, without intervention, the drivers of mangrove loss and degradation in the region described above can be expected to continue and potentially expand given national development trends relating to urban, aquaculture and agricultural expansion.

The continued loss of mangroves within the ETPS countries will have significant impacts on the communities, from reef-to-ridge, through the loss of essential ecosystem services provided by mangroves. For example, recent studies from Mexico have shown an almost immediate impact on local fisheries associated with even modest losses in mangrove cover (Carrasquilla-Henao et al 2013). Mangroves are important nursery grounds and breeding sites for both marine and terrestrially associated birds, fish, crustaceans, shellfish, reptiles, mammals and commercially important species (Nagelkerken et al 2008). In Panama, up to 60% of wild caught shrimp fisheries are based on 5 species, which directly depend on mangroves (Lacerda et al 1993). The continued loss of mangroves across the ETPS will similarly result in major disruptions to the coastal fisheries that are a significant source of livelihoods for communities across the region. Very importantly, due to the high ecological interconnectivity of mangrove ecosystems, the losses in one country can affect the fisheries production in neighboring countries.

The humid tropical and subtropical mangrove forests along the Pacific margin (similar to temperate salt-marshes) provide important goods and services to coastal communities. They accumulate and transform nutrients, help bind sediments preventing coastal erosion and support rich ecological communities. They are also on the front line in terms of their position relative to many coastal hazards.

Studies show that as waves pass inshore through 100 m of mangrove coastline their height and energy is reduced by up to 66%. More developed mangrove stands over km scales can reduce flooding impacts from storm surges and help reduce tsunami flood depth by 5-30%. Given their role in sediment cohesion and filtration of out flowing water they also support development of sand dunes, barrier islands, salt marshes, sea grasses and coral reefs, all of which serves to improve natural coastal defenses, sustain high productivity, biological diversity and coastal resilience.

The IPCC has identified the large coastal cities of the ETPS as being particularly vulnerable to climate change driven flooding. Seawater could penetrate 150 to 500 m inland along the Puntarenas coast of Costa Rica. In Ecuador, sea level rise over the next century will impact the Guayas river system, including associated coastal urban areas of Guayaquil, potentially resulting in the need for relocation of over 300,000 people, losses of US$1,305 billion, losses of urban and recreation areas, and impacts on drinking water supply. In Colombia, permanent flooding of 490,000 ha of low-lying coast, impacting 1.4 million people has been predicted (IPCC 2007). Extensive losses of mangroves, which provide natural coastal defenses against some of the threats in these areas will accelerate and amplify these impacts.

Given the broad diversity of terrestrial and marine biodiversity dependent on mangroves, ongoing loss of mangrove habitat will have reef-to-ridge biodiversity implications. The 40% of mangrove species already classified as threatened will potentially be lost. Three of these species, Avicennia bicolor, Mora oleifera and Tabebuia palustris all listed as Vulnerable and a fourth species Rhizophora samoensis listed as Near Threatened, are rare or uncommon species only known from the Pacific coast of Central America and Colombia (Polidoro et al., 2010). Further, continued mangrove losses will have major impacts on the biodiversity of coastal ecosystems including seagrasses, coral reefs and others, which are populated by mangrove dependent fishes, shrimp and other species (Nagelkerken 2008).

Mangroves along the Costa Rica Pacific coast are adjacent to settled areas and line the downstream watershed from farmed areas such as extensive sugar cane, pineapple and melon plantations. At least 30% (WHO, 1997) and as much as 99% of imported pesticides used are known to be highly toxic to fish and crustaceans. Gulf of Nicoya has 39 communities along its periphery (including the islands) representing around 15,000 people. These note the reduction of the commercially fished piangua (Anadara tubercolosa), contamination of ground waters, accumulation of refuse and incursions of shrimp farms and low productivity salt ponds (CATIE, 2014). Some fishers (allegedly from in-land urban areas) are also known to clear mangrove roots to facilitate easier access to piangua without realizing the co-dependence of the two species for healthy fisheries. Tilapia and shrimp farms also release antibiotics used to control fish parasitic bacteria into tributaries contaminating groundwater to both mangrove and urban coastal areas.

Although 40% (70,000 ha) of mangroves fall within the protected area system along the Panama Pacific coast they are still subject to an estimated deforestation rate of 910 ha/year adjacent to urbanized areas across the principal mangrove Gulfs of Montijo, Panama Bay and Chiriqui. Bark is stripped mostly from the red mangrove Rhizophora racemosa and sold for the extraction of tannin. The market is often facilitated by family associations working in small groups with a small stipend paid up front over a week, with the quantity regulated under permit and quota by the fisheries authority ARAP. Limited resources for enforcement however suggest that illegal trafficking occurs at local docks. Families also dedicate themselves to fishing for shellfish over 3 hour periods at low tide, extracting per person an estimated 25 lbs per day in the David region with product sold directly to restaurants or processing plants. Problems include a lack of institutional coordination, a low base education often leading to conflicts between harvesters without alternative livelihoods and new regulations for permits for the various wood products. The associated value of Panama mangroves for Pacific coastal fisheries as nursery habitat has been estimated at $2,937 USD/ha/yr not including the hundreds of artisanal fisher communities along the coast. The value of mangroves for coastal protection is likely to be high considering the risk of flooding to low lying urban areas and airports such as at David and Tocumen.

Afro-descendant communities in the Colombian Pacific region are highly dependent on the availability and quality of ecosystem services. Access to northern sections of the coast is very restricted with truly isolated communities, whereas port zones such as Buenaventura in the south represent a central hub connecting inland communities to the coast. The ecosystems they inhabit have also been an important factor in defining their way of life, traditions, planning, and use and distribution of the land. Thus, these communities have played an important role in the conservation of the ecosystems, particularly mangroves, and key biodiversity that has been identified as strategic for Colombia. General Community Councils (Consejos Comunitarios Generales) in the region were established to enable the cultural preservation of Afro-descendant communities in the Pacific region. The most important Afro-descendant organizations in the Pacific region is the Los Riscales General Community Council (Chocó) La Plata Community council and Cajambre Community council in Valle del Cauca Department, which represents various collective territories.

The main economic activities in the Tortugas gulf area are fishing, subsistence agriculture, and timber extraction. These activities have led to accelerated ecosystem degradation, threatening the survival of traditional communities. Nevertheless, a supply of services and small-scale commercialization of basic products (plantain, yucca malanga, rice etc.) are becoming more important in the local economy, as well as the job opportunities offered by the local government for health, education, or public administration initiatives. Tourism is also recently becoming an important economic activity, although local communities usually benefit the least, working in low-income jobs within the sector. The region has also suffered from violence as a result of Colombia´s internal armed conflict.

Mangroves of Ecuador host four of the major commercial species strongly related to this ecosystem: red crab (Ucides occidentalis), black ark (Anadara tuberculosa and A. similis also known as mangrove cockle) and blue crab (Cardisoma crassum); resources with a high ecological importance for their role as ecosystem “scrubbers”, as well as being the principle sources of work and income for a critical mass of people living in poverty along the coasts of Esmeraldas, Guayas and El Oro provinces. Loss of mangrove coverage due to shrimp farms and clearance for urbanization reduces biomass and critical densities of these resources impacting fisheries sustainable yield and income to approximately 5,400 families involved in extraction and commercialization. Surveys taken across Ecuador (CI-Ecuador, 2015) estimate 6,990 ancestral users of the mangrove ecosystem work in red crab (4990 fishers), black ark (1,550 fishers) and blue crab fisheries (500 fishers mainly in Esmeraldas province). At least 500 women working in the province of Esmeraldas are collectors of the black ark bivalve.

Recent measurements of carbon storage in Costa Rican and Ecuadorian mangroves have shown that these ecosystems in the ETPS have highly significant deposits of carbon. Degradation and conversion of these mangroves – for example for conversion to shrimp aquaculture, will result in release of this carbon into the ocean and atmosphere, contributing to climate change in addition to the loss of their capacity to sequester carbon.

Ongoing losses of mangroves will have major impacts on the coastal water quality in the ETPS. Mangrove losses will reduce the filtering of sediment and pollutants from upland water flows and coastal pollutant sources such as those from shipping. In addition, since intense rainfall events are expected to increase in the region over the next century (IPCC 2007), the amount of sediment and other pollutants likely to transported through rivers into coastal oceans will increase, amplifying the impact of mangrove loss on water quality.